[TxHam] Prepare for IKE coming HERE

[Brian K. Gaskamp]

Also another good site

www.stormpulse.com


Brian
KA5BKG
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "David J" <kb5ylg at yahoo.com>
To: <txham at mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 12:13 PM
Subject: [TxHam] Prepare for IKE coming HERE


> Time to check out your ready kits and update your family preparedness 
> plans and touch base with you disaster relief team leadership.
>
> ---
> National Weather Service Bulletin:
>
> Greetings -
>
> A quick update on Ike. We'll send a more complete update in the morning.
>
> SYNOPSIS - It appears Ike will have more of a direct impact on north
> Texas this weekend. Latest guidance takes the center just west of the
> I-35 corridor late Saturday through midday Sunday. Strong gusty winds,
> torrential rain, and isolated tornadoes can be expected, especially near
> and east of the center, if this forecast verifies.
>
> DISCUSSION - After several days of westward shifts in the guidance, the
> latest forecasts for Ike suggest a more northern/eastern track, with the
> center making landfall late Friday night/early Saturday morning north of
> Corpus Christi. After landfall, the western edge of the upper level
> ridge that has steered Ike is forecast to erode as an upper level system
> approaches from the west. This will allow Ike to turn north, with the
> system entering our southwest counties as a tropical storm Saturday
> afternoon, and exiting our northern counties as a tropical depression
> Sunday.
>
> IF THIS FORECAST SCENARIO VERIFIES - we would see sustained winds of
> 40-50 mph in our southern counties, with gusts to perhaps 60 mph. Winds
> would gradually decrease, but even our Red River counties could expect
> 30-35 mph sustained winds with gusts well into the 40s. Multiple-inch
> rains would also occur, with widespread 4-6 inch amounts possible near
> and east of the center. On the north and east sides of the circulation
> center, vertical wind shear would be sufficient for "mini-supercell"
> structures in the outer bands, leading to a threat of isolated tornadoes.
>
> BOTTOM LINE - Closely monitor the latest forecasts and trends. As you
> know, this has been an especially challenging storm to forecast. It
> does appear that the threat is increasing for our counties. Keep up
> with our websites:
>
> http://www.weather. gov/fortworth
> (base info)
>
> http://www.nhc. noaa.gov
> (National Hurricane Center)
>
> http://www.srh. noaa.gov/ fwd/wcm/embrief. htm
> (Emergency Manager briefing)
>
> for the latest updates. We'll put out a more detailed briefing tomorrow
> morning, and hopefully the details/potential impacts will become more
> certain. We'll also likely start putting out some information for
> public consumption regarding preparedness activities.
>
> Regards,
> Gary W.
> (still in Fort Worth :-) )
>
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