[TxHam] Prepare for IKE coming HERE

[David J]

Time to check out your ready kits and update your family preparedness plans and touch base with you disaster relief team leadership.

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National Weather Service Bulletin:

Greetings -

A quick update on Ike. We'll send a more complete update in the morning.

SYNOPSIS - It appears Ike will have more of a direct impact on north
Texas this weekend. Latest guidance takes the center just west of the
I-35 corridor late Saturday through midday Sunday. Strong gusty winds,
torrential rain, and isolated tornadoes can be expected, especially near
and east of the center, if this forecast verifies.

DISCUSSION - After several days of westward shifts in the guidance, the
latest forecasts for Ike suggest a more northern/eastern track, with the
center making landfall late Friday night/early Saturday morning north of
Corpus Christi. After landfall, the western edge of the upper level
ridge that has steered Ike is forecast to erode as an upper level system
approaches from the west. This will allow Ike to turn north, with the
system entering our southwest counties as a tropical storm Saturday
afternoon, and exiting our northern counties as a tropical depression
Sunday.

IF THIS FORECAST SCENARIO VERIFIES - we would see sustained winds of
40-50 mph in our southern counties, with gusts to perhaps 60 mph. Winds
would gradually decrease, but even our Red River counties could expect
30-35 mph sustained winds with gusts well into the 40s. Multiple-inch
rains would also occur, with widespread 4-6 inch amounts possible near
and east of the center. On the north and east sides of the circulation
center, vertical wind shear would be sufficient for "mini-supercell"
structures in the outer bands, leading to a threat of isolated tornadoes.

BOTTOM LINE - Closely monitor the latest forecasts and trends. As you
know, this has been an especially challenging storm to forecast. It
does appear that the threat is increasing for our counties. Keep up
with our websites:

http://www.weather. gov/fortworth
(base info)

http://www.nhc. noaa.gov
(National Hurricane Center)

http://www.srh. noaa.gov/ fwd/wcm/embrief. htm
(Emergency Manager briefing)

for the latest updates. We'll put out a more detailed briefing tomorrow
morning, and hopefully the details/potential impacts will become more
certain. We'll also likely start putting out some information for
public consumption regarding preparedness activities.

Regards,
Gary W.
(still in Fort Worth :-) )