[SMCARA] Re: TS CHRIS Discussion 12

[N3YZU]

--- N3YZU <n3yzu at yahoo.com> wrote:

> Mornin  All,
>     Well the T/S  CHRIS  has lost  some oomph....for
> the time being ...
>   We will have to  see what comes in the next  few
> days.....
>   Again please keep in mind that fluid is necessary
> for keeping  the hydration up....
>    
>   Regards,
>    Dave
> 
> "NHC Mail (Atlantic Full)"
> <mail-storm-atlan-full at seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov> wrote:
>   
> 000
> WTNT43 KNHC 031434
> TCDAT3
> TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
> NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
> 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006
> 
> THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND
> SHEAR...ASSOCIATED
> WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD
> INTO CHRIS...HAS
> TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS
> DEVOID OF DEEP
> CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE
> CENTER. SOME HEAVY
> SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE
> AFFECTING PUERTO
> RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
> TO SPREAD
> WESTWARD INTO HISPANIOLA TODAY.
> 
> DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION
> SUGGESTED THAT
> CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM
> INTENSITY. IF
> IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS
> SOME DEEP
> CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST
> RETAINS THE
> SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
> THIS IS A
> PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
> REGENERATION...SINCE
> THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
> ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE
> FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF
> PRESENT TRENDS
> CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
> CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. 
> 
> THE MOTION CONTINUES BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
> NEAR 10 KT. A
> WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
> BE MAINTAINED TO
> THE NORTH OF CHRIS...OR ITS REMNANT...THROUGHOUT THE
> FORECAST
> PERIOD. THIS STEERING REGIME WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
> THE SYSTEM ON
> A 280-285 DEGREE HEADING AT ROUGHLY 10-12 KT FOR THE
> NEXT SEVERAL
> DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
> PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
> TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
> 
> FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
> 
> INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.5N 67.3W 35 KT
> 12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 68.9W 30 KT
> 24HR VT 04/1200Z 21.1N 70.9W 30 KT
> 36HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.0W 30 KT
> 48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 30 KT
> 72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 30 KT
> 96HR VT 07/1200Z 24.0N 85.0W 30 KT
> 120HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 30 KT
> 
> $$
> FORECASTER PASCH
> 
> 
> 
>
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> 
> 
> 73 N3YZU
> 
>  				
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73 N3YZU


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