Fw: [PVRCNC] Packet and SS, some stats. Read #s and weep.

[Jim Stevens]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim Stevens" <k4ma@nc.rr.com>
To: "Guy Olinger, K2AV" <k2av@contesting.com>; <pvrc@mailman.qth.net>;
<pvrcnc@mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 9:59 AM
Subject: Re: [PVRCNC] Packet and SS, some stats. Read #s and weep.


> Have bit my tongue as long as I can.  IMHO, these statistics don't mean
> squat.
> The reason that 'B' scores are better than 'U' scores on average or media
or
> however you look at it, is the following very simple reason:
>
> THE BEST OPERATORS TEND TO ENTER THE 'B' CLASS MORE THAN
> THE 'U' CLASS.
>
> If N6TR, K5ZD, N2IC, N9RV, N4AF, N2NT, etc. entered 'U' class then it all
of
> these statistics
> would be flipped.
>
> So to make your statistical study if packet helps or hurts valid, I think
> you have to
> throw out all of the CW mutant scores that are skewing the data.  Because
> the real question that you want answered is does packet help the average
> operator.
> The mutants don't need any help.
>
> 73, Jim K4MA
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Guy Olinger, K2AV" <k2av@contesting.com>
> To: <pvrc@mailman.qth.net>; <pvrcnc@mailman.qth.net>
> Sent: Tuesday, November 05, 2002 10:22 PM
> Subject: [PVRCNC] Packet and SS, some stats. Read #s and weep.
>
>
> > I hate to disagree with all the stuff about running "U" to run up our
> > SS scores. The numbers tell a different and completely obvious (IMHO)
> > story.
> >
> > Following gleaned from Dink's latest offering of 3830 listserve SS
> > claimed scores.
> >
> > An infrequently used term: Median, point where as many scores are
> > above as below, Gives a more meaningful concept of center when there
> > are very large or very small scores that can skew an average
> > (arithmetic mean).
> >
> > Examining the characteristics of the "top half" of scores may expose
> > trends among the most serious and/or proficient operators
> >
> > Median score
> >   SOHP 168.3k
> >   "U"  141.0k
> >
> > Average number of sections for stations above median score for class:
> >   SOHP 79.68
> >   "U"  80.00
> >
> > Average number of hours operation for stations above median score for
> > class:
> >   SOHP 23.90
> >   "U"  22.60
> >
> >
> > Conclusions:
> >
> > Top Half scores are almost entirely full time efforts, with non-packet
> > stations almost a perfect 24 hours.
> >
> > As could be expected, top half packet scores are all clean sweeps, but
> > that is a microscopic advantage over an average of 79.68 among the
> > SOHP. No top half SOHP missed more than one section, and MOST were
> > clean sweeps.
> >
> > The variation in median score between the groups is fairly constant
> > over the ENTIRE RANGE of scores. This indicates that on whole, even
> > accounting for the difference in operating time, operating "U" is a
> > DISADVANTAGE.
> >
> > There are a scattering of stations in "U" that bucked that trend. They
> > are, to the man, all operators that have WON contests, divisions,
> > zones, etc, before.
> >
> > This leads me to suspect that operating "U" has some difficult aspects
> > that take top rank skills to subdue. One obvious disadvantage of
> > packet sniping is that following spots there is always a pileup when
> > you get there.
> >
> > The maxim still holds: Run an amp, call CQ, don't worry about
> > sections, and put in the hours.
> >
> > This year I tuned up on a clear spot on 10 above the crowd, and when I
> > lifted the key I was called by the only station I worked in VI. He was
> > 40 over S9, by far the loudest signal I heard the entire contest. SS
> > has a lot of serendipity to it.
> >
> > An hour later I heard him again and he was only S5, and subject of a
> > pileup. Probably couldn't have worked him. If I follow a packet spot
> > and find him at the S5 level, I have to have the sense to keep on
> > going and keep up my rate.
> >
> > 73, Guy.
> >
> >
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