[PBARC] Notes on Rita

[WOLF, EARNEST G]

Here is the latest idea on Rita position and intensity. The pressure will be bouncing up and down, but the storm has reached its peak and I think it hits as a cat 4. The forecast below speaks for itself: 

12z Friday 26.5/92.5/915mb 135 kts/ 12z sat 30.0,95.0 950 mb 110 kts ( landfall 3-6 hours earlier as 130kt hurricane 952-935 mb pressure)/ 12z Sunday 34.0,95.0 980 55kts 

This mornings forecast called for 25.0 n, 90.0 west at 930 mb with 130kt winds The verification is 25.2 north, 88.4 west with pressure at 910 and winds of 140kts. 

The potential of Rita is staggering. A strong cat 3 or 4 storm hitting in this area then raining itself out as it is blocked from moving quickly could mean 7-10 days of lack of power and water in an arc from Lake Charles to Huntsville to College Station then back southwest to Victoria. The economic losses up the I 45 corridor all the way to Conroe, built with upscale housing and business now would in itself be a major blow. Its my opinion, that supplies have to get in there BEFORE the storm hits, or the threat of an enhanced catastrophe is there. Imagine the wind of a Katrina, but the rain pattern of an Allison and you get the worry I have. 

The storm is making my case for seeding as we see once again what can happen to a powerful system when the perfect conditions to get it there are disrupted. Look for the pressure to come up another 30 mb today, then the storm will bounce up and down. 

The pulse of development is pushing east and once Rita is off the field, the southwest atlantic and caribbean as well as the eastern gulf should be hot spots. The season is by no means done with Rita 


THURSDAY 3:30 A.M.: THE SUM OF ALL FEARS...THE BEAST AIMS FARTHER EAST. 

1.) The Rita path will be adjusted east. Slow post-landfall movement in east Texas implies ultimate Texas catastrophic weather event between worst possible landfall site of strongest storm ever to hit the state and then the rainout of the slow mover. This storm will outdo all others combined in post-landfall rain amounts as the front stalls near the storm and supplies extra reason for increasing rain amounts. 

2.) Heavy rain could impact New Orleans, if not by direct amounts, then by amounts farther northwest coming down the river. 

3.) Severe weather will plague Rita areas for several days. 

4.) A much more transient pattern in westerlies over the next 7-10 days allows for cooler air to spread southward. The Japanese ridge is alive and kicking, meaning the ridge lurks off the south Atlantic coast. 

5.) Development of cross-polar flow and chillier than normal in Canada ups the temperature sweepstakes for any fronts. 

6.) Analogs to middle and late September 1985 are being glanced at, but until I have some time, I can't hone in yet. The point is that new in-close tropical activity is likely to develop next week, be it the wave coming across or just the pattern allowing for southwest Atlantic development. 

7.) The strong pulse of convection continues working into the Atlantic basin. 

8.) For Texas, the lack of hurricanes over the past 20 years means the rent has come due. 

9.) New positions will be out later this morning. Obviously, the jaw-dropping intensification, though starting a little late, did occur. 

Ciao for now.