[PBARC] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[egwolfjr at email.com]

Weather information brought to you by N5RN.

FLUS44 KLZK 121517 AAA
HWOLZK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
915 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
915 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING ALOFT. 
INITIALLY...DEVELOPING RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH DRY AIR OVERHEAD... 
WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME 
SPRINKLES NEAR THE GROUND. 

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM 
THE PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MORE RAPIDLY...WITH RAIN BECOMING 
MORE STEADY. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND EVEN A 
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL 
AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE 
DIMINISHING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...AND 
THERE MAY EVEN BE SUNSHINE AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO 
WARM WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW AREAS IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS 
REACHING 70 DEGREES. THE WARMING WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE.

AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL DRAG 
A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP...WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE. 

AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN THE STORMS WILL 
POP UP. IT APPEARS THAT STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR WHEN THE FRONT 
IS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE STATE. GIVEN THIS...SEVERE STORMS WILL 
BE MOST LIKELY IN ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS...OR 
SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO...LITTLE ROCK AND TEXARKANA. 

WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING 
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR MONDAY. 

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE LATE TUESDAY 
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. A NEW 
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK...AND WILL INTERACT 
WITH THE STALLED FRONT. THIS WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER 
PATTERN...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... 
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING. 

$$

73,
Glenn