[PBARC] Severe Weather Outlook

[E. Glenn Wolf, Jr.]

Sent: Thursday, April 28, 2005 3:19 PM
Subject: Severe Weather Outlook


It still looks as though we will see some thunderstorms develop in the
state this evening and continue on through the late night hours.  A few
of these storms should have the potential to become severe, with hail
being the main severe weather threat.  Isolated instances of damaging
winds will be possible, mainly this evening.  Toward dawn Friday, we may
see another chance of severe thunderstorms moving from Oklahoma into
western Arkansas.  Again, the main threat would be hail.

The situation for later in the day Friday is looking more ominous.  The
main changes to what I wrote this morning are that the weather maps are
now showing the atmosphere will be even more unstable than indicated
earlier, and that events will probably unfold a little later in the day
and evening.

Thunderstorms will likely begin developing in western or central
Arkansas by early to mid afternoon, then increase in coverage and
intensity through central and eastern sections from later in the
afternoon on into the evening hours.  This afternoon's maps are showing
instability tomorrow to be greater than at any other time this spring.

The greatest threat of tornadoes will likely be during the late
afternoon and early evening.  Large storms that are well-separated from
any other nearby storms will have the biggest tornado potential.  The
Storm Prediction Center is indicating that they believe there will be a
possibility of "significant tornadoes".  By their definition, this is F2
or greater on the Fujita Scale.

A line of thunderstorms should develop at some point, probably by early
evening.  The development of the line should decrease the tornado
potential somewhat.  However, very strong winds aloft point toward the
likelihood of some thunderstorms with damaging winds, perhaps even in
the 70+ mph range.  Large hail (golf ball size or larger) will be a good
possibility as well.

The southeastern half of the state stands to have the greatest risk of
severe weather, and I suspect that the farther east you go in the state,
the bigger the risk.

The activity should be east of the Mississippi River by mid to late evening.

 From now through Friday evening, rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 1/2
inches are most likely.  Totals may be a little less in the western part
of the state.  Some spots in the northeast quarter of Arkansas could
pick up 2 inches or so.

I will issue the next message by 10 AM Friday.

John Robinson
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Little Rock
Office Web site:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk