[OKDXA] Interesting propagation question

[Rick]

KIM
Very well said !!!!!
I totally agree with you.
And, As you say-----
"Sometimes it's good to be part of a statistically significant outlier. "
I believe that I may have experienced this same phenomena.
But never gave it much thought at the time.
Most likely because I was just too excited and happy to make the contact.
73 Rick K9KK

On 2/27/2017 9:55 PM, Kim Elmore wrote:
> Keep in mind that propagation programs are based pretty much on 
> statistical models -- I once met the guy that wrote VOACAP. Odd things 
> can happen that are in the "tails" of the probability distribution and 
> so have a very low -- but not zero! -- probability of occurring. 
> Sometimes, it's good to be part of a statistically significant outlier!
>
> 73,
>
> Kim N5OP
>
>
> On 2/27/2017 8:28 PM, Rick wrote:
>> Forgot to mention that it does show a 1-25% probability at 1900UTC 
>> and earlier.
>> So, I would imagine that there might be an even lower probability at 
>> 2200 ?????
>> It does not mention the prop mode.
>>
>> On 2/27/2017 4:49 PM, John Geiger wrote:
>>> This afternoon at 2200Z I worked OH0Z from Aland Islands on 15 CW.  
>>> That
>>> should be 11pm local for them, several hours after sunset.  He was 
>>> putting
>>> in a great signal, S5 or so, but no other EU stations where heard at 
>>> all.
>>> I am sure his Northerly location played a part.
>>>
>>> What propagation mechanism was likely at play?  I am guessing it had 
>>> to be
>>> more than just F2 as it was several hours into darkness for OH0, and 
>>> the
>>> MUF should have been below 21mhz at that time local.  Could it be an
>>> Auroral-Es to F2 link?  Any other ideas as to the type of propagation?
>>>
>>> 73 John AF5CC
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>>
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>