[OKDXA] Interesting propagation question

[Kim Elmore]

Keep in mind that propagation programs are based pretty much on 
statistical models -- I once met the guy that wrote VOACAP. Odd things 
can happen that are in the "tails" of the probability distribution and 
so have a very low -- but not zero! -- probability of occurring. 
Sometimes, it's good to be part of a statistically significant outlier!

73,

Kim N5OP


On 2/27/2017 8:28 PM, Rick wrote:
> Forgot to mention that it does show a 1-25% probability at 1900UTC and 
> earlier.
> So, I would imagine that there might be an even lower probability at 
> 2200 ?????
> It does not mention the prop mode.
>
> On 2/27/2017 4:49 PM, John Geiger wrote:
>> This afternoon at 2200Z I worked OH0Z from Aland Islands on 15 CW.  That
>> should be 11pm local for them, several hours after sunset.  He was 
>> putting
>> in a great signal, S5 or so, but no other EU stations where heard at 
>> all.
>> I am sure his Northerly location played a part.
>>
>> What propagation mechanism was likely at play?  I am guessing it had 
>> to be
>> more than just F2 as it was several hours into darkness for OH0, and the
>> MUF should have been below 21mhz at that time local.  Could it be an
>> Auroral-Es to F2 link?  Any other ideas as to the type of propagation?
>>
>> 73 John AF5CC
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-- 

Kim Elmore, Ph.D. (Adj. Assoc. Prof., OU School of Meteorology, CCM, PP 
SEL/MEL/Glider, N5OP, 2nd Class Radiotelegraph, GROL)

/"In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in 
practice, there is." //– Attributed to many people; it’s so true that it 
doesn’t matter who said it./