[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 2/10/2006 4:18:47 AM
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Fri Feb 10 04:18:47 EST 2006
WWUS41 KPHI 100917
WSWPHI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-102130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1100Z/
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
417 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK, WINTER WILL BE MAKING ITS
RETURN WITH AVEANGENCE THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A MAJOR NORTHEASTER. SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT DURING THE
EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RELATIVELY WARM ATLANTIC OCEAN, AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY
SEE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. BUT AS THE STORM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY
AND THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY AND AT
NIGHT, THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW, EVEN IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 8 INCHES
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING WELL INLAND.
WITH THIS TYPE OF AN EXPLOSIVE EAST COAST STORM, IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TO GET CONVECTION, OR THUNDERSNOW, AT THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM. IF THIS OCCURS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES
AN HOUR. THIS WOULD CAUSE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ON
THIS WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-102130-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
417 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK, WINTER WILL BE MAKING ITS
RETURN WITH AVEANGENCE THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A MAJOR NORTHEASTER. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 12 INCHES.
USING THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FOR THIS STORM, THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD RUN FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON TO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. ACCUMULATIONS
IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 TO AROUND 12 INCHES. IF THE STORM
TRACKS FARTHER EAST, THE HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. IF IT
TRACKS FARTHER WEST, CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE HEAVY SNOW WOULD
SHIFT TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF AN EXPLOSIVE EAST COAST STORM, IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TO GET CONVECTION, OR THUNDERSNOW, AT THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM. IF THIS OCCURS, SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO 3 INCHES
AN HOUR. THIS WOULD CAUSE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 12 INCHES.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE°LETEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ON
THIS WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2005 THROUGH
EARLY 2006. THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
=====================================================================
PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)
=====================================================================
STATION 2IN 4IN 6IN 9IN 12IN 18IN 24IN
=====================================================================
MPO 90 80 65 30 15 5 <5
ABE 90 85 75 40 20 5 <5
PHL 95 90 85 50 20 10 <5
ACY 80 70 50 20 10 <5 <5
GED 70 50 25 10 5 <5 <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.
STATION IDENTIFIERS:
MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI
TFG/RPW
WWWW
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