[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Winter Storm Warning : PHI@ 2/10/2006 8:50:31 AM
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Fri Feb 10 08:50:31 EST 2006
WWUS41 KPHI 101349
WSWPHI
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
849 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-102200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1100Z/
KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY
849 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK... WINTER WILL BE MAKING
ITS RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE... THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A MAJOR NORTHEASTER. SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT DURING THE EARLY
AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY
WARM ATLANTIC OCEAN... AREAS CLOSE TO THE COAST MAY SEE MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW. BUT AS THE STORM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY AND THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT... THE RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW... EVEN IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER MUCH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING WELL INLAND.
WITH THIS TYPE OF AN EXPLOSIVE EAST COAST STORM... IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TO GET CONVECTION... OR THUNDER-SNOW... AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. IF THIS OCCURS... SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO
3 INCHES AN HOUR. THIS WOULD CAUSE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS ON THIS WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-102200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0003.060211T1700Z-060212T1400Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
849 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2006
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...MAJOR EAST COAST STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER TAKING ALMOST A TWO MONTH BREAK... WINTER WILL BE MAKING
ITS RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
TODAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY
SATURDAY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE SATURDAY
NEAR THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF
CAPE COD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AVAILABLE... THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A MAJOR NORTHEASTER. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE
SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO
12 INCHES.
USING THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FOR THIS STORM... THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD RUN FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON TO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. ACCUMULATIONS
IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8 TO AROUND 12 INCHES. IF THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER EAST... THE HEAVY SNOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST. IF IT TRACKS FARTHER WEST... CLOSER TO THE COAST... THE
HEAVY SNOW WOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST.
WITH THIS TYPE OF AN EXPLOSIVE EAST COAST STORM... IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TO GET CONVECTION... OR THUNDER-SNOW... AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. IF THIS OCCURS... SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2 TO
3 INCHES AN HOUR. THIS WOULD CAUSE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED
12 INCHES.
THIS STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL
SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS ON THIS WINTER STORM.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FOR THE WINTER OF LATE 2005 THROUGH
EARLY 2006. THE PROBABILITIES GIVEN BELOW ARE BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL THEORY, OUR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL WINTERS, AND THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL STORM. THE PERIOD OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL IS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
=====================================================================
PROBABILITY (PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE FOLLOWING STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (INCHES)
=====================================================================
STATION 2IN 4IN 6IN 9IN 12IN 18IN 24IN
=====================================================================
MPO 90 80 65 30 15 5 <5
ABE 90 85 75 40 20 5 <5
PHL 95 90 85 50 20 10 <5
ACY 80 70 50 20 10 <5 <5
GED 70 50 25 10 5 <5 <5
=====================================================================
PROBABILITIES ARE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST 5 PERCENT.
STATION IDENTIFIERS:
MPO - MOUNT POCONO, PA (MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT)
ABE - ALLENTOWN, PA (LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
PHL - PHILADELPHIA, PA (PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
ACY - POMONA, NJ (ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)
GED - GEORGETOWN, DE (SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT)
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI
TFG/RPW
WWWW
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