[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/9/2006 4:06:32 PM

[f4trees-skywarn at yahoo.com]

WWUS81 KPHI 092105 CCA
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-101100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
353 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006

...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

AFTER TAKING A BREAK, WINTER WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TO THE REGION. 
COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO THE AREA, AND A WINTER 
STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST 
ON FRIDAY.  IT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC 
STATES AND INTENSIFY BY SATURDAY.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY 
WITH THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE 
EACH PRESENTING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH 
OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM.  PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE 
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK 
OF THE STORM, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR 
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE, THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS 
SNOW SATURDAY. THEN, THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE WHAT 
FALLS AND WHERE. 

IF THE STORM IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN 
IN FROM THE OCEAN, AND PRECIPITATION WOULD MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY 
CHANGE TO RAIN  SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR, 
ESPECIALLY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND EASTERN 
MARYLAND. IF THE STORM MOVES A BIT MORE TO THE EAST, THEN THE 
HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD OCCUR ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION, 
INCLUDING THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IF THE LOW IS TOO FAR EAST, THEN THE 
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE 
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND.  

IT APPEARS THAT THE CRITICAL TIME PERIOD WILL BE LATE SATURDAY AND 
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW OCCUR. 

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING STORM, 
IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  HOWEVER, THE 
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ACROSS, AT LEAST 
PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, DELAWARE AND 
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.  SEVERAL OF THE MOST RELIABLE COMPUTER MODELS 
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.

AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER, WE SHOULD GET A MUCH BETTER IDEA OF HOW
THE UPCOMING EVENTS WILL PLAY OUT. UNTIL THAT TIME, IF YOU WILL BE
TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST 
STATEMENTS, POTENTIAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND FORECAST UPDATES ON 
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.


$$

NIERENBERG




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