[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/15/2004 3:39:00 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 152045
SPSPHI
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2004



DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-161100-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
345 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2004


...POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL THEN...

COMPUTER GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE GROWING POSSIBILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY.  MOST COMPUTER MODELS AGREE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO A
LOCATION SOMEWHERE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. 
THEY STILL ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER ONCE IT MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT US.

AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IT SEEMED MOST LIKELY THAT PRECIPITATION
WOULD LARGELY CONFINE ITSELF TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA.  AS A RESULT OF
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. 

ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONCERN FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS TIDAL 
FLOODING.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG AS IT PASSES THE COASTLINES OF DELAWARE AND 
NEW JERSEY.  HOWEVER, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH. 
DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME TIDAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR.

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS IN THE EVENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM DOES
ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

MEANWHILE, THE ARCTIC AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WILL GENERATE WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT THAT RANGE FROM AROUND MINUS TEN OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY TO NEAR ZERO OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT PORTION OF THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE.  PLEASE DRESS APPROPRIATELY IF YOU GO OUTSIDE TONIGHT.

ALSO, PLEASE MAKE SURE PETS AND OTHER DOMESTIC ANIMALS HAVE ACCESS TO
WARM BEDDING, SHELTER FROM THE COLD AND ACCESS TO UNFROZEN WATER. 

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE VOICE OF THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, FOR UPDATES ON THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.  THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT OUR WEB SITE, WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI.

$$
/MPD