[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/15/2004 4:04:24 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 150910
SPSPHI
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2004



DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-152300-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
410 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2004


...POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIM...

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AS WELL AS  
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY. 
SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG 
THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO A LOCATION OFF 
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF AN 
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, MOST 
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, IF NOT ALL, IS 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 

WITH THE POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER STILL THREE DAYS AWAY, NOT ALL COMPUTER 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT PERTAINING TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE 
SYSTEM AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST, AWAY FROM THE COAST, THE 
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, IT APPEARED 
THAT THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WOULD FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF 
THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA.  

ANOTHER POSSIBLE CONCERN FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS TIDAL 
FLOODING. AT THE MOMENT, IT DOESN'T APPEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG AS IT PASSES THE COASTLINES OF DELAWARE AND 
NEW JERSEY. BUT, WITH THE NEW MOON OCCURRING ON FRIDAY, ASTRONOMICAL 
TIDES WILL BE RUNNING HIGH. THUS, DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND 
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME TIDAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY 
OCCUR.

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS IN THE EVENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM 
DOES ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

THE COLD AIR THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD ACT UPON, UNLIKE THE SYSTEM 
ITSELF, IS A CERTAINTY. IN FACT, YOU'LL NOTICE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS 
WHEN YOU STEP OUTSIDE TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 
15 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL 
BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND 
DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. BRISK NORTH WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT AND AT THE SAME 
TIME PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES TO BELOW ZERO THROUGHOUT THE REGION. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.  

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE VOICE OF THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, FOR UPDATES ON THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. IF YOU WANT TO CHECK OUT THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION ON 
THE INTERNET, OUR FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI.

$$

KRUZDLO