[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/14/2004 3:11:45 PM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 142016
SPSPHI
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2004



DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-151100-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
315 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2004

...A SIGNIFCANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PART OF OUR AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
...A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIM...

PRESENT COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA, NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY
AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO A LOCATION OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOW WOULD FALL AS SNOW. 

AS OF LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, IT APPEARED THAT THE GREATEST AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL SOUTHEAST OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND FAR
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THERE AND NORTHWEST.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SNOW COULD MIX WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
DELAWARE, ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, AND
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NEW JERSEY AS WARM AIR WOULD TRY TO WRAP AROUND
THE SYSTEM.  ALSO, DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER, SOME TIDAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR
AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

NOT ALL COMPUTER MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND
SO THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IT.  HOWEVER,
PEOPLE IN THE REGION SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS IN THE EVENT
THAT A SIGNIFICANT STORM DOES ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

THE COLD AIR THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD ACT UPON IS, UNLIKE THE SYSTEM, A
CERTAINTY.  THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BY A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SOME FLURRIES
AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK INCH
OF SNOW AND CREATE SOME LOCALLY SLIPPERY DRIVING CONDITIONS. 

SUNDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.  WIND CHILL FACTORS IN
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY WILL BE BELOW ZERO,
AND THEY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.  BRISK
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MORE ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND BY THEN WIND CHILL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ZERO 
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.  

PLEASE DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR THIS OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR.  ALSO,
PLEASE BE CERTAIN THAT PETS AND OTHER DOMESTIC ANIMALS HAVE SHELTER
FROM THE COLD, ACCESS TO WARM BEDDING AND TO UNFROZEN WATER. 
ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS PERSISTENT AS PREVIOUS OUTBREAKS THIS
WINTER, THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY GO OUT WITH A BIT MORE FANFARE. 

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE VOICE OF THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, FOR UPDATES ON THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI.

$$
/MPD