[MTHOLLYSVRWX] Special Weather Statement : PHI@ 2/16/2004 4:12:24 AM

[PHI Skywarn]

WWUS81 KPHI 160919
SPSPHI
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EST MON FEB 16 2004



DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-162300-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
419 AM EST MON FEB 16 2004


 ...POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST, WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND END UP OVER THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO  
MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO 
WEDNESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OR OUR POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.   

COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE INTO 
THE NORTHERN DELMARVA, THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, SOUTHERN 
AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 
THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THESE LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION, CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONCERNING
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER. THIS IS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED WARMER AIR THAT COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS THE REGION. IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH, WHICH IS USUALLY NEEDED TO KEEP THE COLDEST AIR IN PLACE, 
WILL BE PRESENT. 

AT THE MOMENT, IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW 
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, AS WELL 
AS THE ADJACENT EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. THERE IS EVEN A 
CHANCE THAT ALL THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE EXTREME 
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 
ALL RAIN. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA 
INCLUDING THE SURROUNDING SUBURBS, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, 
AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
ALL SNOW. BUT BECAUSE THE AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ALL SNOW ARE
FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE STORM CENTER ITSELF, SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME, WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO
LIMIT ACCUMULATING SNOW.

DUE TO THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST 
FORECASTS THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PLAN ON LEAVING A LITTLE EXTRA TIME FOR 
YOURSELF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COMMUTE COULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER 
THAN USUAL. 

FOR THOSE OF YOU LIVING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST, ANOTHER CONCERN FOR 
THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS TIDAL FLOODING. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG AS IT PASSES THE 
COASTLINES OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. HOWEVER, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES 
WILL BE RUNNING HIGH. DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF 
THIS SYSTEM, SOME TIDAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION COULD OCCUR.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO, THE VOICE OF THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, FOR UPDATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF 
YOUR NEAR A COMPUTER, CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE, WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI.

$$

KRUZDLO






WWWW