[LeArc] Solar and Geophysical Activity - Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2003

Duane Whittingham [email protected]
Sat, 25 Oct 2003 12:48:04 -0500


Don't shoot the messenger lol, i don't understand a lot of it either ;)

Duane - N9SSN


Dave Nissen wrote:

> See http://www.qsl.net/learc/ for club information.
> 
> Next club meeting October 14 at 7:00 PM.
> 
> Please join us on Sunday Evenings for the
> Lamoine Emergency ARC Sunday Evening Net.
> Net time is 8:00 PM local time.
> 
> 
> I sure hope that someone understood all this, because it has confused me.
> 
> 73
> Dave de W9COP
> 
> No trees were destroyed in the sending of this message.
> However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Duane Whittingham" <[email protected]>
> To: <[email protected]>
> Sent: Friday, October 24, 2003 8:53 PM
> Subject: [LeArc] Solar and Geophysical Activity - Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct
> 2003
> 
> 
> 
>>See http://www.qsl.net/learc/ for club information.
>>
>>Next club meeting October 14 at 7:00 PM.
>>
>>Please join us on Sunday Evenings for the
>>Lamoine Emergency ARC Sunday Evening Net.
>>Net time is 8:00 PM local time.
>>
>>
>>Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
>>SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2003
>>
>>IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
>>to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S16E57)
>>produced several flares, including a M7.6/1n at 24/0254 UTC, with an
>>associated Type IV radio sweep.  An associated CME was observed on
>>SOHO/LASCO imagery with an estimated velocity of 900 km/s, although
>>the CME did not appear to be earth-directed.  Region 484 (N05W15)
>>produced an M1.3 at 24/1856 UTC.  Region 484 appears to be decaying
>>slightly, while Region 486 is growing.  Both regions continue to
>>exhibit large, complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations.
>>The F10 value is flare enhanced and is estimated due to solar
>>activity at the time of the measurement.
>>
>>IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be high.
>>Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce major flares.
>>
>>IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
>>The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels.  An
>>interplanetary shock was observed at ACE at 24/1450 UTC, with a
>>subsequent sudden impulse observed at 1530 UTC.  The sudden impulse
>>was followed by about two hours of severe geomagnetic storm
>>activity, and produced a magnetopause crossing at GOES 12.  Solar
>>wind data show high density flow with strong magnetic fields (about
>>30 nT), although so far Bz has been strongly northwards. The greater
>>than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
>>today.
>>
>>IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
>>expected to be at active to severe storm conditions for day one, due
>>to persistence from the current transient-driven activity.  Activity
>>should subside to unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and
>>three.
>>
>>III.  Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
>>Class M    90/90/90
>>Class X    45/45/45
>>Proton     15/20/25
>>PCAF       yellow
>>
>>IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
>>Observed           24 Oct 191
>>Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct  190/195/200
>>90 Day Mean        24 Oct 117
>>
>>V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
>>Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  005/007
>>Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  035/040
>>Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  035/040-030/040-020/030
>>
>>VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
>>A.  Middle Latitudes
>>Active                30/40/40
>>Minor storm           40/30/30
>>Major-severe storm    30/20/15
>>B.  High Latitudes
>>Active                20/20/20
>>Minor storm           40/40/40
>>Major-severe storm    40/40/30
>>
>>-----------------------------------------------------------------
>>Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
>>Tom and Darryl Radio Shows & Saturday Morning Confusion
>>Heard on C-Band Analog Satellite (W0KIE) - GE7-CH5-7.5 mHz
>>WTND-LP Macomb 106.3, WQNA FM, WBCQ 7415 kHz & the Internet.
>>Heard Fridays 9pm ET, Sundays 12am ET and Tuesdays 1am ET
>>An Independent Freeform Eclectic Radio Show.
>>http://www.tomanddarryl.org
>>http://www.wtnd.us
>>
>>--
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>>_______________________________________________
>>
>>Lamoine Emergency Amateur Radio Club
>>
>>    W9SSP  - 147.060 (103.5 tone)
>>
>>          WB9TEA - 444.300
>>
>>Meetings on the second Tuesday of the month.
>>7:00 PM at the American Red Cross Building in Macomb.
>>
>>LeArc mailing list
>>[email protected]
>>http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/learc
>>
> 
> 
> _______________________________________________
> 
> Lamoine Emergency Amateur Radio Club
> 
>     W9SSP  - 147.060 (103.5 tone) 
> 
>           WB9TEA - 444.300
> 
> Meetings on the second Tuesday of the month.  
> 7:00 PM at the American Red Cross Building in Macomb.
> 
> LeArc mailing list
> [email protected]
> http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/learc
> 
> 
> 


-- 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows & Saturday Morning Confusion
Heard on C-Band Analog Satellite (W0KIE) - GE7-CH5-7.5 mHz
WTND-LP Macomb 106.3, WQNA FM, WBCQ 7415 kHz & the Internet.
Heard Fridays 9pm ET, Sundays 12am ET and Tuesdays 1am ET
An Independent Freeform Eclectic Radio Show.
http://www.tomanddarryl.org
http://www.wtnd.us