[LeArc] Solar and Geophysical Activity - Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct
2003
Dave Nissen
[email protected]
Sat, 25 Oct 2003 06:12:33 -0500
I sure hope that someone understood all this, because it has confused me.
73
Dave de W9COP
No trees were destroyed in the sending of this message.
However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced
----- Original Message -----
From: "Duane Whittingham" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, October 24, 2003 8:53 PM
Subject: [LeArc] Solar and Geophysical Activity - Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct
2003
> See http://www.qsl.net/learc/ for club information.
>
> Next club meeting October 14 at 7:00 PM.
>
> Please join us on Sunday Evenings for the
> Lamoine Emergency ARC Sunday Evening Net.
> Net time is 8:00 PM local time.
>
>
> Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
> SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2003
>
> IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
> to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S16E57)
> produced several flares, including a M7.6/1n at 24/0254 UTC, with an
> associated Type IV radio sweep. An associated CME was observed on
> SOHO/LASCO imagery with an estimated velocity of 900 km/s, although
> the CME did not appear to be earth-directed. Region 484 (N05W15)
> produced an M1.3 at 24/1856 UTC. Region 484 appears to be decaying
> slightly, while Region 486 is growing. Both regions continue to
> exhibit large, complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations.
> The F10 value is flare enhanced and is estimated due to solar
> activity at the time of the measurement.
>
> IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high.
> Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce major flares.
>
> IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
> The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. An
> interplanetary shock was observed at ACE at 24/1450 UTC, with a
> subsequent sudden impulse observed at 1530 UTC. The sudden impulse
> was followed by about two hours of severe geomagnetic storm
> activity, and produced a magnetopause crossing at GOES 12. Solar
> wind data show high density flow with strong magnetic fields (about
> 30 nT), although so far Bz has been strongly northwards. The greater
> than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
> today.
>
> IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
> expected to be at active to severe storm conditions for day one, due
> to persistence from the current transient-driven activity. Activity
> should subside to unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and
> three.
>
> III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
> Class M 90/90/90
> Class X 45/45/45
> Proton 15/20/25
> PCAF yellow
>
> IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
> Observed 24 Oct 191
> Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 190/195/200
> 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 117
>
> V. Geomagnetic A Indices
> Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 005/007
> Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 035/040
> Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 035/040-030/040-020/030
>
> VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
> A. Middle Latitudes
> Active 30/40/40
> Minor storm 40/30/30
> Major-severe storm 30/20/15
> B. High Latitudes
> Active 20/20/20
> Minor storm 40/40/40
> Major-severe storm 40/40/30
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
> Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
> Tom and Darryl Radio Shows & Saturday Morning Confusion
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