[LeArc] Solar and Geophysical Activity - Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2003

[Duane Whittingham]

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2003

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S16E57)
produced several flares, including a M7.6/1n at 24/0254 UTC, with an
associated Type IV radio sweep.  An associated CME was observed on
SOHO/LASCO imagery with an estimated velocity of 900 km/s, although
the CME did not appear to be earth-directed.  Region 484 (N05W15)
produced an M1.3 at 24/1856 UTC.  Region 484 appears to be decaying
slightly, while Region 486 is growing.  Both regions continue to
exhibit large, complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations. 
The F10 value is flare enhanced and is estimated due to solar
activity at the time of the measurement.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce major flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels.  An
interplanetary shock was observed at ACE at 24/1450 UTC, with a
subsequent sudden impulse observed at 1530 UTC.  The sudden impulse
was followed by about two hours of severe geomagnetic storm
activity, and produced a magnetopause crossing at GOES 12.  Solar
wind data show high density flow with strong magnetic fields (about
30 nT), although so far Bz has been strongly northwards. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to severe storm conditions for day one, due
to persistence from the current transient-driven activity.  Activity
should subside to unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and
three.

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    90/90/90
Class X    45/45/45
Proton     15/20/25
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 191
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct  190/195/200
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 117

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  035/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  035/040-030/040-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           40/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           40/40/40
Major-severe storm    40/40/30

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Duane Whittingham (N9SSN) - Producer
Tom and Darryl Radio Shows & Saturday Morning Confusion
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