[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/19/2003 3:47:00 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 190844
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

FALL LIKE COOL TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY OVER NORTHERN HALF OF 
FORECAST AREA THANKS TO CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER WI EARLY THIS 
MORNING. MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ACROSS 
SOUTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL MO PROVIDING FEW LINGERING STRATUS IN FAR 
SOUTHERN CWFA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE MORE 
COMFORTABLE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH DRY BULB TEMPS IN 50S 
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS STREAMING OFF LAKE MI INTO AREAS NORTH OF 
I-80. HIGH MOVING SOUTH TO PROVIDE ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY...THEN 
RETURN TO HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE 
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN CHALLENGE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE 
IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES.

UPPER AIR PATTERN DOMINATED BY PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER ROCKIES AND 
TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH VORTEX SEEN OVER 
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING CHURNING SOUTHEAST INTO 
UPPER MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT SURFACE...RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY 
DEVELOPS TONIGHT...AND THEN IN EARNEST BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SOARING BACK TO TYPICAL JULY VALUES. ETA...GFS AND 
UKMET SPIN UP LOW ALONG FRONT OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WARM FRONT 
EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CWA 18Z SUNDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN TIMING 
BETWEEN MODELS WITH LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO POSITION 
OVER SE LOWER MI BY 12Z MONDAY. GFS AND UKMET MOST OMINOUS WITH 
STRENGTH OF LOW. SEVERE POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE...WITH JET LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRONT...AND STRONG 
SYNOPTIC MID LEVEL FORCING AS ADVERTISED WITH MODERATE RISK IN SPC 
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES AND 
QUESTIONS ABOUT MCS BOUNDARIES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTH...CHOSE 
NOT TO INCLUDE SEVERE MENTION IN GRIDS/ZONES JUST YET...BUT RAISED 
POPS SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY IN 
SOUTH WHERE SW FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO LOWER 90S SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW POPS INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN SYSTEM MOVES 
EAST WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE AND DEEP UPPER LONG WAVE 
TROUGH JUST TO EAST TO PROVIDE COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AND 
FEW CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED GRIDS.  

.DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SHEETS
$$