[LeArc] Forecast Discussion : MLI@ 7/18/2003 4:31:47 PM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FXUS63 KDVN 182113
AFDMLI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOW DEW POINTS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES COMING IN ON A NORTHEAST FLOW.  AT 500MB NORTHWEST FLOW HAS
SET IN.  CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH..AS A TRAILING VORT
MAX SWEEPS SOUTH THRU THE AREA.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE TWO-FOLD.  FIRST IS
NEAR RECORD COOL TEMPS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH COMING OVERHEAD.  UPPER 40S DEW POINTS HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY
INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PUSH
SOUTHWEST THRU THE NIGHT.  LAKE MICHIGAN AFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...BEFORE WINDS GO CALM UNDER THE APPROACHING HIGH.  THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE NORTHEAST...IN THE LOWER 50S...AND THE
MILDEST IN THE SOUTHWEST...NEAR 60.

THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIME FRAME WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THRU
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH DIFFLUENT
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE AREA.  A PRECEDING VORT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING EAST ON MONDAY.  VV'S MAY BE STRONG NORTH
SUNDAY...WITH MODERATE VV'S ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE
THETA-E RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING FURTHER IN TIME...CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE THRU
TUESDAY...KEEPING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
MAINTAINING THRU WEDNESDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THRU THURSDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

WILL CONTINUE PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN THEME
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

REA