[LeArc] HWODVN@ 7/19/2003 5:58:49 AM

[learc@mailman.qth.net]

The following weather message is provided by McDonough County E.S.D.A.


FLUS43 KDVN 191056
HWODVN
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
555 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK 
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE 
WILL BE A SMALL RISK OF TORNADOES WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 
AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO 
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SEVERE 
WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY MOVE 
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY IN THE 
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS 
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND 
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES 
THE FRONT SOUTHEAST. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR 
ALONG BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS. 
THESE WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES OF THUNDERSTORM 
COMPLEXES THAT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...INTO 
SOUTHEAST IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN 
THE EVENING. 

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS STORMS DEVELOP 
INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT TO 
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH 
AS 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OR MORE IN A SHORT 
AMOUNT OF TIME MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY 
OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF 
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE THE GROUND MAY BE ALREADY SATURATED FROM 
RECENT RAINFALL. 

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER RISKS. UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS 
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION WILL BE GIVEN IN LATER 
OUTLOOKS.  

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&
MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN (ALL LOWER CASE)

$$
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