[K3CAL] Fwd: FW: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Released

Fri May 22 14:43:46 EDT 2026

Interesting info from Calvert Emergency Management

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Buckmaster, Kara R. <Kara.Buckmaster at calvertcountymd.gov>
Date: Fri, May 22, 2026, 12:22
Subject: FW: ***2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Released***
To: Andrew Charland <acharland182 at gmail.com>

Sharing in case you’re interested. Feel free to share.

*Kara Buckmaster, DPA, CEM, MDPEMP*

O: 410-535-1600 x2781

M: 443-684-4269

<https://outlook.office365.com/bookwithme/user/[email protected]?anonymous&ep=signature&ismsaljsauthenabled>

Let’s connect—book a Teams meeting with me.
<https://outlook.office365.com/bookwithme/user/[email protected]?anonymous&ep=signature&ismsaljsauthenabled>

*From:* Kiona Black <kiona.black at maryland.gov>
*Sent:* Thursday, May 21, 2026 4:33 PM
*To:* Kiona Black -MDEM- <kiona.black at maryland.gov>
*Subject:* ***2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Released***

To: Local Jurisdictions, SCFLG, SEOC Reps, Fire & Special Operations
Partners Cc: MJOC, MDEMStaff, Senior Leadership Re: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane
Season Outlook Action: Situational Awareness; share with partners as you
please The National

ZjQcmQRYFpfptBannerStart

*This Message Is From an External Sender *

This message came from outside your organization.

ZjQcmQRYFpfptBannerEnd

To: Local Jurisdictions, SCFLG, SEOC Reps, Fire & Special Operations
Partners

Cc: MJOC, MDEMStaff, Senior Leadership

Re: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Action: Situational Awareness; share with partners as you please

The National Weather Service (NWS) officially released the 2026 Hurricane
Season Outlook for the Atlantic Basin (encompasses Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of
America, and Caribbean Sea). I have also attached a summary document of the
NHC 2026 products and services.

Feel free to utilize the infographics and attachments and distribute
broadly to your stakeholders and a special thanks to our Region III
Hurricane Liaison Team Lead Mike Bilder for the great summary of the NWS
report.

*2026 Hurricane Season Outlook Summary:*

   - Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st through November 30th
   - NWS predicts a *BELOW* normal season

   - 55% chance of below normal season
      - 35% chance of near normal season
      - 10% chance of above normal season

   - Storm expectations:

   - 8 to 14 named storms (tropical/subtropical storms or stronger)
      - 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
      - 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)
      - *This is not a prediction of how many tropical cyclones will make
      landfall!*

   - Factors influencing this below normal prediction:

   - El Niño is expected to develop and intensify in the equatorial Pacific
      during hurricane season with a greater than 95% chance that it persists
      through peak hurricane season (September & October for the Mid-Atlantic)
      which typically decreases Atlantic hurricane activity due to
increased wind
      shear

   - There is still forecast uncertainty surrounding the strength of the El
         Niño.

   - NWS does expect slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures
      and weaker than normal trade winds. These two factors are favorable for
      tropical cyclone development, however, a stronger El Niño somewhat
      mitigates these favorable developmental conditions

   - *Remember, regardless of what the seasonal outlook says, it only takes
   ONE storm to cause devastation across the Mid-Atlantic region and it can
   occur outside of peak season during a strong **El Niño year:*

*Downtown Frederick City, June 1972 - Remnants of Hurricane Agnes*

*1972 Marked a "Strong" El Niño Year*

*Helpful Links:*

   - NOAA Press Release
   <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season__;!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2MaulYkg0wqGQ$>
   - FEMA National Hurricane Program (NHP)
   <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/risk-management/hurricanes__;!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2Maulb6_cuZng$>
   - NWS National Hurricane Center (NHC)
   <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.hurricanes.gov/__;!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2MaulbfIOjCTQ$>
   - NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
   <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/__;!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2MaulZw6eNFCQ$>
   - NWS National Water Center (NWC)
   <https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.weather.gov/owp/operations__;!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2MaulbD1oizGw$>

*Graphics:*

*11 Days Until Hurricane Season!*

Stay Safe!

*Kiona L. Black, BSLS *

Response Coordination Branch Manager

State EMAC Coordinator

State Hurricane Program Coordinator

Consequence Management Directorate

Maryland Department of Emergency Management
<https://www.google.com/maps/search/7229+Parkway+Drive,+Suite+200+%0D%0A+Hanover,+MD+21076?entry=gmail&source=g>

7229 Parkway Drive, Suite 200
<https://www.google.com/maps/search/7229+Parkway+Drive,+Suite+200+%0D%0A+Hanover,+MD+21076?entry=gmail&source=g>

Hanover, MD 21076
<https://www.google.com/maps/search/7229+Parkway+Drive,+Suite+200+%0D%0A+Hanover,+MD+21076?entry=gmail&source=g>

kiona.black at maryland.gov

(410) 517-3600 (MJOC)

(410) 456-3243 (M)

Website
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/mema.maryland.gov/__;!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2MaulbXZA1rNw$>
| Facebook
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.facebook.com/MDMEMA__;!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2MaulZnyR-0SQ$>
| Twitter
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/twitter.com/mdmema__;!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2MaulbgO_Q1Fw$>

Click here to complete a three question customer experience survey.
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__http:/www.doit.state.md.us/selectsurvey/TakeSurvey.aspx?agencycode=MEMA&SurveyID=86M2956*__;Iw!!DQNvdwrwp7gU1Q!dxaqNvbwDFH9z1rxwiE-7zRK1iwwHz6Li4XqOarrjkezkKKag8OBXUCUcf5qPSPyvcxohzO5jsJlUt71PDyWhr0OfrzCg2MaulZfZBfhIA$>

To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
email to mema-dl-local-directors+unsubscribe at maryland.gov.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 475487 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0010.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 1060732 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0011.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 1122586 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0012.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 193268 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0013.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 16678 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0014.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 475487 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0015.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 1060732 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0016.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 16678 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0017.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 1122586 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0018.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image.png
Type: image/png
Size: 193268 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0019.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: 2026 NHC New Products and Services.pdf
Type: application/pdf
Size: 4568989 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://mailman.qth.net/pipermail/k3cal/attachments/20260522/c4376d17/attachment-0001.pdf>

[K3CAL] Fwd: FW: ***2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Released***

[K3CAL] Fwd: FW: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Released