To: Local Jurisdictions, SCFLG, SEOC Reps, Fire & Special Operations Partners

Cc: MJOC, MDEMStaff, Senior Leadership

Re: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Action: Situational Awareness; share with partners as you please

The National Weather Service (NWS) officially released the 2026 Hurricane Season Outlook for the Atlantic Basin (encompasses Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of America, and Caribbean Sea). I have also attached a summary document of the NHC 2026 products and services.

Feel free to utilize the infographics and attachments and distribute broadly to your stakeholders and a special thanks to our Region III Hurricane Liaison Team Lead Mike Bilder for the great summary of the NWS report.

2026 Hurricane Season Outlook Summary:

• Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st through November 30th
• NWS predicts a BELOW normal season

• 55% chance of below normal season
• 35% chance of near normal season
• 10% chance of above normal season

• Storm expectations:

• 8 to 14 named storms (tropical/subtropical storms or stronger)
• 3 to 6 could become hurricanes
• 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater)
• This is not a prediction of how many tropical cyclones will make landfall!

• Factors influencing this below normal prediction:

• El Niño is expected to develop and intensify in the equatorial Pacific during hurricane season with a greater than 95% chance that it persists through peak hurricane season (September & October for the Mid-Atlantic) which typically decreases Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased wind shear

• There is still forecast uncertainty surrounding the strength of the El Niño. 

• NWS does expect slightly warmer than normal sea surface temperatures and weaker than normal trade winds. These two factors are favorable for tropical cyclone development, however, a stronger El Niño somewhat mitigates these favorable developmental conditions

• Remember, regardless of what the seasonal outlook says, it only takes ONE storm to cause devastation across the Mid-Atlantic region and it can occur outside of peak season during a strong El Niño year:

Downtown Frederick City, June 1972 - Remnants of Hurricane Agnes

1972 Marked a "Strong" El Niño Year

11 Days Until Hurricane Season!

Stay Safe!