[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
       WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
    CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Sun, 25 Jan 2004 18:42:52 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <0a6e01c3e39d$58205370$24b63bd0@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all....

....Potential exists for a Major Winter Storm Over Much of Southern New
England from late Monday Night through Early Wednesday with the hardest
timeframe for the storm Tuesday Night through Wednesday Morning....
....The Potential exists for 8" or more of snow across much of Southern
New
England and particularly along and north of the Massachusetts
Turnpike....
....SKYWARN Self-Activation May Be Needed During This Storm. At this
time,
Ops at NWS Taunton does not appear to be necessary but this will be
reviewed
over the next few days....

The potential exists for a Major Winter Storm over much of Southern New
England from late Monday Night through Wednesday Morning. One storm
system
will track west of the region and produce a period of heavy snow late
Monday
Night into Tuesday Morning. This could dump 2-5" of snow across much of
the
area. There will then be a lull in the precipitation and this may allow
for
a changeover to sleet and freezing rain with a changeover to rain
possible
over coastal locations, particularly the Outer Cape and Nantucket. Late
Tuesday Afternoon, a secondary low pressure system will intensify rapidly
off the New Jersey Coast, this will rush cold air back into the region
and
change all precipitation over to snow and the snow will rapidly become
heavy
at times. Accumilations of 8" or more of snow are possible across much of
Southern New England and Winter Storm Watches maybe required by Monday
Morning.

At this time, wind is not expected to be a major player in this storm but
this will be monitored in future outlooks. Also, the track and the rapid
intensification process of this storm remains uncertain. The eventual
track
and intensification of the storm system will determine how much mixing of
precipitation will occur across an area along and south of the Mass. Pike
and how rapidly the changeover back to snow takes place especially over
Cape
Cod and the Islands.

SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators are asked to monitor this major winter
storm. SKYWARN Self-Activation appears likely with this storm. SKYWARN
formal activation does not appear likely at this time but this will need
to
be monitored as the storm system evolves.

The next coordination message will be issued by 8:30 AM Monday.

Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Outlook, Hazardous WX Outlook and
Area Forecast Discussion:

WWUS81 KBOX 252227
SPSBOX

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
529 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

.AN IMPORTANT AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL EVENTUALLY EMERGE
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVE OUT TO SEA.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-261022-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
529 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

WHILE THIS STORM IS STILL FAR AWAY...ITS LIKELY TO BRING ADVERSE
WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ITS SLOW EVOLUTION LEAVES THE TRACK A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ITS A BIT EARLY TO PINPOINT THE AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOW BUT THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THAT 8 INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL IN AN 18 HOUR PERIOD OVER
LARGE SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SLEET COULD COMPLICATE
MATTERS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW.

WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAJOR PLAYER IN THIS EVENT.

ONCE FORECASTERS BECOME MORE CERTAIN OF A HEAVY SNOW THREAT...A WATCH
WOULD BE ISSUED...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING.

CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WOULD BE
MOST ADVERSELY IMPACTED...WITH THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE IN
CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND ALSO A CANDIDATE FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF LATER STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
DRAG

FLUS41 KBOX 252136
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-261200-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
435 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL AFFECT THE
REGION. AS THESE SYSTEMS HEAD NORTHEAST THEY WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BRUNT OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COASTAL STORM INTENSIFIES AND MAKES ITS WAY
UP THE COAST. DURING THIS TIME...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN IN
EARNEST. AS THE STORM STEERS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...BUT THEN
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL OF A FOOT OR EVEN MORE.  HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE TRACK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THAT LOCATION.
ALSO...SOME WARMER MID LEVEL AIR MAY TEMPORARILY MOVE INTO AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OFF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE TUESDAY EVENING...
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME...WITH
EVEN PLAIN RAIN POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS.  AS
THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS...ALL AREAS WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS THE COASTAL STORM DEEPENS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...
EAST TO NORTHEAST GALES COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TRACKS OF THE STORM
SYSTEMS.  PLEASE SEE OUR WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER THE HEADER
(BOSSPSBOX).

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SNOWFALL REPORTS MIGHT BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

KAB/FRANK

FXUS61 KBOX 252231 AAA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL DAYSHIFT..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
530 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2004

...POTENTIAL CONTINUES STRONG FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...

VERY COLD AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION.  MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED EARLY ON...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME VERY HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY BOTTOM OUT BELOW -10F.

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AS MODELS DEPICT ISENTROPIC LIFT
ABOVE 600 MB....ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.  PROBABLY TOO
MUCH DRY AIR BELOW THAT TO SEE ANY LIGHT SNOW.  SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHERLY...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME OCEAN AFFECT SNOW FLURRIES
OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
MUCH WARMER AND THERE IS VERY DRY AIR RIGHT OFF THE DECK.
THEREFORE...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES.

THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THE INITIAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL
INDUCE STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.  EXPECT SNOW TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND IT MIGHT COME DOWN QUITE HARD FOR A TIME.
COULD SEE A QUICK 2 TO 5 INCHES AS MID LEVEL LIFT OVER RUNS THE
ARCTIC DOME

THEN EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR A TIME TUESDAY EVENING.  MESO-
ETA MODELS SHOWS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 0C AT 850 MB...
TO THE MASSACHUSETTS PIKE.  THEREFORE...WITH JUST SHALLOW LIFT MAY
SEE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE EVEN UP TO
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER.

THEN ALL ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS A
SECONDARY LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW JERSEY SHORE.  THE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ALL SHOWING A
VERY SIMILAR TRACK.  WITH CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION.  THESE MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING
INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ALSO NOTE SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN
THE SOUNDINGS.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL WITH
EXTREMELY STRONG LIFT AND HEAVY SNOW WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
REGION.  EXPECT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM...HEAVY SNOW
MAY VENTURE  FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS SHOW...EVEN INTO OUR SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES.  ALL IN ALL...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FOOT
OF MORE OF SNOW OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  EVEN
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...ANY RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO HEAVY SNOW
AS THE LOW QUICKLY BOMBS OUT AND PULLS DOWN COLD AIR.  CONSIDERED A
4TH PERIOD WATCH...BUT AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
WILL GO WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK...POSTED 530PM.
18Z ETA/GFS WERE INCORPORATED INTO STMT CONSIDERATIONS.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...NORTHERLY WIND MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME OCEAN AFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...MORE COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  MEX GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM WITH AMOUNT OF
ARCTIC AIR UP IN CANADA.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH VERY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...IT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG BUT ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
A RATHER COLD START...BUT SHOULD MODERATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CI INCREASING AND DESCENDING THROUGH 18Z MON.  PROJECTED IFR/LIFR
DEVELOPING IN PRD OPF MDT-HVY SNOW TUESDAY CONTG INTO EARLY WED WITH
PLOWING OPS NCESSARY.  COLD SNOW EXPECT WET SNOW/SLEET PYM-EWB SEWD.
&&

.MARINE...
LEFTOVER SCA SEAS THIS EVE THEN ABOUT 24 HOURS OF RECOVERY.

NEXT HEADLINES WOULD BE WITH ADVANCING COASTAL LOW ON TUESDAY.  FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS ON OUTER WATERS TUESDAY
AND ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT BOS HARB TUESDAY NIGHT.  GALES MAY BE
NEEDED ON THE OUTER WATERS!

SEA ICE...PLEASE NOTE THE COVERAGE ON SAT IMAGERY SE CAPE COD BAY
E PART OF BUZZ BAY AND MUCH OF THE REGION S OF CAPE COD TO ACK.
SEA ICE IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN CC BAY IN MANY YEARS AND WE'RE
HEARING REPORTS OF ICE BREAKERS. WE'LL REENTER THIS FEATURE IN THE CW
FORECAST THIS AFTN.

&&

.MOS MEX VALUES...
THE FOLLOWING IS PRESENTED TO OFFER CONFIDENCE IN DEPARTING
GUIDANCE WHEN 850 MB ENSEMBLE EXCESSES ARE MODELED. NORMALLY THIS
GUIDANCE IS EXCELLENT AND HARD TO BEAT BUT CLIMO DOES BIAS THE
STATS WITH TIME.

APPARENTLY JAN 850MB OF -24C YIELDS ABOUT ZERO IN BOS WITHOUT SNOW
COVER.

THE -3SD 850 AIRMASSES THIS JANUARY PRODUCED THE FOLLOWING DEPARTURES
FROM THE OP RUN...

00z/11TH...THE DAY 3 AND 5 DEPARTURES FOR THE THE 14TH AND 16TH
WERE 12 AND 14F TOO WARM...THEN CHECK THE FOLLOWING LARGEST
DEPARTURES THIS FCSTR HAS EVER SEEN IN THE MEX MOS OP RUN GUIDANCE.

               MN/MX/MN/MX/MN/MX 14-16 RESPECTIVELY
00Z/8 DAY 7-9  16 16 12 13 15 12
00Z/7 DAY 8-10 27 28 26 25 27 19
00Z/6 DAY 9-11 24 25 24 30 33 22

.CLIMATOLOGY...
THROUGH THE GENEROUS COURTSEY OF EXTERNAL SOURCES...AS WELL AS NEAL
STRAUSS OUR CLI FOCAL AND ALL WHO'VE CONTRIBUTED IN DEVELOPING THE
DATABASES AND CLI SEARCHES.

MQE IS 8TH COLDEST JAN THRU THE 23RD AND THIS IS SO FAR THE COLDEST
JANUARY SINCE 1981!

BOS NO SUBZERO THIS MORNING. BUT 4 SUBZERO THIS MONTH IS THE MOST
IN ONE MONTH SINCE DEC 1942!

BOS ..BASED ON TODAYS TEMPS AND THE AFTN "PROJECTED" CCF FOR THE REST
OF THE MONTH WILL AVG ABOUT 21.3 FOR THE MONTH OR 4TH COLDEST ON
RECORD AND AS COLD AS IT AVERAGED IN JANUARY 81.  TEMP RECORDS AT
BOS DATE BACK TO 1872.  THIS AND ORH BELOW COULD BE OFF A FEW TENTHS
BUT WE FEEL PRETTY CLOSE.

ORH IS "PROJECTED" AT ABOUT 15.9 OR TIED FOR SECOND COLDEST ON
RECORD TIEING JAN 1994 AND 1981.  TEMP RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1892.

BOS SNOWFALL...EVERY YEAR SINCE ~1872ISH WHENEVER 15" IN DEC...
WINTER TOTAL WAS ABOVE NORMAL.

BDL SNOWFALL...WINTER GREATER THAN 23" IN DEC AVGD 15 ABV NORMAL FOR
THE SEASON.

ORH SNOWFALL...ADDING .5" FOR THE SQUALL EVENT THAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THE 22ND.

ECWS...PER COLLUCI W&F PAPER AND PERS COMMS THIS WINTER SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL ON ECWS (NORMAL ARD ~11 AND SO FAR 4).
WE MAY BE DUE A BIG ONE SOON.

SNOWFALL MEASURING PER TWO VASTLY DIFFERENT SOURCES ROUGH FIGURES
6 HRLY VS 1 HRLY INCREASES AMT ARD 10 PCT
6 HRLY VS 12HRLY DECREASES AMT ARD 10 PCT
6 HRLY VS 24 HRS DECREASES AMT ARD 15 PCT
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR SEAS OUTER WATERS.
$$

AVIATION/MARINE...DRAG
PUBLIC...FRANK

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo