[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #2

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
       WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
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    CT+ MD+ VT+ Stockwood + King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2004 07:58:17 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #2
Message-ID: <0ad901c3e40c$676c09e0$24b63bd0@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all...

....Major Winter Storm Remains a High Probability for Much of Southern
New
England....
....Timeframe of the Heaviest Precipitation and Highest Level of Problems
is
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Morning....
....Winter Storm Watches Could Be Issued Later Today....
....SKYWARN Self-Activation for Snowfall Amounts May Be Needed Pending
Total
Storm Accumilations. Ops at NWS Taunton Would Only Be Needed if Winds Are
Forecast to Be Strong Enough to Cause Issues....

A Major Winter Storm remains a high probability for much of Southern New
England. The timeframe is roughly from either late Tuesday Afternoon or
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Morning possibly extending to the midday
hours of Wednesday. Models are roughly 4-6 hours different in timing the
start and end of the precipitation. Since the heaviest precipitation will
not occur for another 36 hours, Winter Storm Watches have not been issued
yet but they will most likely be issued later today.

This storm has the potential to produce 6" or more of snow across a large
portion of the region. At the present time, given the current track of
the
system, much of the precipitation will fall as snow and it could be heavy
at
times. As we get closer to the event, the track of the system will be
more
certain and a better idea of snowfall amounts and what type of
precipitation
will occur will be understood better by forecasters.

Along coastal areas, Gale Warnings may be issued as the storm intensifies
off the Southern New England Coast. This means wind may play some role
with
the snow across coastal areas but how much, if any, of that wind makes
into
interior locations remains to be seen and will be understood better as we
get closer to the event.

SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators are asked to monitor for this potential
major winter storm. SKYWARN Self-Activation appears likely with this
storm.
SKYWARN formal activation with Ops at NWS Taunton does not appear likely
but
this will need to be monitored depending on the wind potential coupled
with
the potential heavy snowfall.

FLUS41 KBOX 261032
HWOBOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
531 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-271045-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
531 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM WILL BRING
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH TO CONNECTICUT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.  A HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THE AREA.  IT WILL ALSO CAUSE GALES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A WINTER WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS STORM.  IF THE FORECAST INFORMATION
ON THIS STORM REMAINS UNCHANGED...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY.

A WEAK STORM RACING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR SNOW MEASUREMENT LOCATIONS FOR NEW
SNOW.  SNOWFALL REPORTS MIGHT BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

WTB

WWUS81 KBOX 260958
SPSBOX

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-261727-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
455 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004

A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.  THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL REACH CONNECTICUT TUESDAY MORNING...AND MAY DEPOSIT
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON THE STATE DURING THE DAY.  THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING.
HEAVIER SNOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...REACHING CONNECTICUT TUESDAY EVENING AND REACHING THE
BOSTON AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF TOWARD MIDDAY.

WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACT ACCUMULATIONS...THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.  COMMUTERS...OTHER TRAVELERS...AND ANYONE WITH PLANS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

WTB

FXUS61 KBOX 260839
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY SLOWLY RETREATS NORTHWARD
TONIGHT WHILE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. CURRENT CIRRUS AND HIGH
ALTO CU STREAMING OVERHEAD...AND DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN THIS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING...EXCEPT ALONG CAPE AND NANTUCKET...A
N/NE WIND TRAJECTORY TO PICK UP THIS MORNING COULD YIELD A LOW CLOUD
DECK AND SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH CHANCE PCPN EXPECTED
FOR BDL BY 12Z.
&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ETA/GFS/GEM GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE "WHAT"...THERE WILL BE A
SNOWSTORM MIDWEEK THAT WILL DUMP A GOODLY AMOUNT OF SNOW ON
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.  THE
OLD PRIMARY WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BEFORE FADING OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE PAST NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE IT CLOSE TO
40N/70W.

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS IS MOSTLY ON TIMING...WITH ETA TIME
SECTIONS SHOWING THE FAVORABLE CONFLUENCE OF LIFT/MOISTURE/AND
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEW ENGLAND 18-21Z
TUESDAY WHILE GFS HOLDS THESE BACK TO 00Z OR A LITTLE LATER.  ETA IS
ALSO FASTER ON MOVING THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH THE GFS A GOOD 4-6
HOURS SLOWER.  BUT WHILE THE ETA IS EARLIER...THE ETA TIME SECTIONS
ALSO SHOW A PROMINENT DRY LAYER AROUND 900 MB THAT LOOKS QUITE HUNGRY
FOR SNOWFLAKES.  GFS RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS MUCH WETTER AT THIS
LEVEL. SO EITHER WAY...THE MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO HANG IN UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL...THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTANT...THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST LEANS A LOT ON ITS TIMING.

GOOD FRONTOGENTIC FORCING FORECAST BY THE ETA AND HINTED AT BY THE
GFS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW A GOOD
COUPLET OF 925MB CONVERGENCE/250 MB DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY.

BOTH MODEL QPFS HAVE A CORE OF 1.3 INCHES OF WATER OVER SOUTHWEST
CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND.  THE GFS IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH THE
WATER...THE QUARTER INCH CONTOUR REACHES TO PSM AND LEB...WHILE THE
ETA HOLDS THAT CONTOUR TO A BOS-ORE LINE.  IN THIS...THE GEM FAVORS
THE GFS COVERAGE AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN NORTHERN QUEBEC I AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE MORE NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S NORTH AND NEAR 30 ON THE SOUTH COAST...
THIS BRINGS HIGHER SNOW RATIOS TO THE LOWER QPF AREAS.  SEEMS TO BE
SUFFICIENT THREAT OF 6 INCH PLUS SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW THIRD PERIOD...BUT MAINLY IN CT AND EVEN THERE WE
EXPECT JUST AN INCH OR SO DURING THE DAY.  THE BULK OF SNOW WILL
FALL DURING 4TH AND EARLY 5TH PERIOD.  THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER
STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM
OUTLOOK.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THEN
A CLIPPER SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCE POPS WITH ITS PASSAGE.
&&

.MARINE...WILL GO WITH SCA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WINDS FROM
MERRIMACK RVR TO PYM AND PLAN TO CARRY SCA FOR SEAS TODAY (3 TO 5)
FROM PVC-ACK-MONTAUK POINT.

BRINGING GALES TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT OF COASTAL LOW.
THESE STRONGER WINDS MOVE OUT TO SEA LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE
RIDGE IS ABLE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER FOR HYA AND
ACK...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 11AM DUE TO
N/NE WINDS BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM OVER WATERS.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA MERRIMACK TO PLYMOUTH
         SCA FOR SEAS PROVINCETOWN TO MONTAUK
$$

SHORT TERM...KAB
LONG TERM...WTB

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Southeast Massachusetts ARES District Emergency Coordinator
SEMARA ARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo