[HCRA] Fw: [coordinators-box] Possible Formal SKYWARN Activation With Ops???? {01}

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
        WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
  earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service


Hello to all...

Latest AFD from NWS Taunton may prompt formal SKYWARN Activation with Ops
at NWS Taunton due to the high wind warning and coastal flood watch.
Again,
it might be a staggered operation with ops late this afternoon and
tonight
and then reconvene operations Saturday Morning into early afternoon. If
current AFD plans hold, will call NWS to determine our plan.

See AFD Below:

FXUS61 KBOX 031437
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2003

...MAJOR WINTER STORM AT HAND FOR SNE AND THIS EVENINGS COMMUTE
   HAS TO BE BAD BOS-BDL NWWD...

CHANGES BLO ON RPOBABLE BUT UNTIL POSTED LETS HANG AS IS. WILL
UPDATE THIS AFD AT 1115AM.

NEW 12Z ETA IN. EVENING COMMUTE SHUD BE TREACHEROUS FM BDL-ORH I-84
AND MA PIKE REGION. ALSO HAS WDSPRD 1.5" IN 24 HRS ENDING 18Z
TOMORROW. 1-3"/HR LIKELY IN S+ AREA. THUNDER POSSIBLE TNGT IN
INTERIOR MA.

PATTERN: WHILE STRONGLY +PNA WEAKENS DURING MID MONTH THE VARIANT
         BUT MAINLY MDT -NAO AND AO CONT ON AND ON. CAN 10 DAY
         MEAN GETTING COLDER.  RESULT: SHO0T OF BLO OR M BLO
         NORMAL COLD WILL INVADE SNE PROBABLY BTWN THE 10TH AND
         18TH...IE THE COLDEST WX OF THE WINTER IN MID WINTER WHEN
         CLIMO IS CLOSING IN ON COLDEST OF THE SEASON.

NEXT 36 HRS: LONG DURATION RESOURCE DRAINER FOR MANY COMMUNITIES
             IN WARNING ZONE.

WSWRNG:  AS IS EXCPT BOOSTING AFTN AMTS IN HFD-CEF-IJD THIS AFTN.
         WARNING AMTS IN BOS-HFD CORRIDOR TENUOUS. 2 HRS OF
         WRONG PTYPE MEANS 4" OF SNOW TNGT. STILL TOUGH CALL.
         12Z MODELS HOPEFULLY HELP.  OCEAN BL WARMTH HAS TO
         OVERWHELM I95 CORRIDOR S OF BOS TO PVD AND MAKE IT WET
         AT TIMES.

COASTAL FRONT W OF BOS AND PROGRESSING WWD!

CSI: NOT CLEAR CUT LIKE XMAS STORM BUT BLV SYM INSTAB FAVORS ENHANCED
     AND PERSISTENT MDT-HVY S WOF 1-2"HR IN S NH AND EVEN PTNS F NRN
     MA INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.

PWR ISSUES: ALMOST CERTAIN THAT RELATIVELY WDPSRD POWER OUTAGES
            WILL OCCUR TNGT IN BOS-BDL SEWD FROM COMBO WIND GUSTS
            AND PASTY SNOW.

NPW: WIND ADVY WBIS AT 1115 AM FOR S COAST TNGT.
     MA 20-24 AND RI5>7.
     WIND ADVY WBIS AT 1115 AM E COAST FOR 03Z TNGT-21Z SAT.
     MA4>6 12>14  17>19  RI 2>4.
     HWWRNG WBIS AT 1115 AM FOR MA 7/15/16.

CFA WBIS AT 1115AM FOR MA 7/15/16/19 FOR MIDDAY SAT HI TIDE.
MDT CF ANTICIPATED. NEW AUTOMATED WNA (FM GFS GWW) GUIDANCE FOR
44029 OFFERS 5.8M AT 17Z TOMORROW WHICH TIMES WITH HIGH TIDE. THATS
20 FT SEAS THERE... WE BLV. WE ALSO THINK TIDE WILL B .3 HIGHER THAN
YDY OR ABT 13.1. THIS HAS TO RESULT IN MDT CF... NOT DESTRUCTIVE
BUT CERTAINLY GOING TO ALTER TRAVEL PLANS FOR SOME SHORE ROADS.
RIGHT NOW WE'LL CALL IT A WATCH AND LEAVE FINAL DECISION TO
CONVERT FOR THE UPCOMING  MID SHIFT.

MARINE: WE'RE PRETTY CONFIDENT OF 50KT GUST E MA CW FOR 09Z-18Z
        SATURDAY.  THE 21Z SREF HAS GIVEN THE FIRST POP IVE EVER
        SEEN IN OUR AREA (YOUNG LIFE OF SREF) OF 10 PCT FOR
        SUSTAINED 20M/SEC. THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE TO EVEN STRONGER
        WIND THAN 1/1 WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO SWELL DVLPT.

SUN NITE 1/5-6: MINOR EVENT BUT 2" SFALL POSS...JUST NOT ENUF TIME
                TO DVLP EXCPT MAYBE CC/ISLANDS?.

TUE 1/7: CONTS IN THE MIX AND WONT FLINCH FROM THIS UNTIL ITS NO
         CHC. IF THE 1/5-6 SW WEAKENS 1/7 EMERGES BIG. AS IT IS IS
         BLV COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BUT MAY B TOO LITTLE TOO
         LATE...WHICH IS GOING TO BE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST PEOPLE HERE.

FRI 1/10  MODIFIED ARCTIC CFP

NEXT WKND: VERY COLD...MBLO NORMAL!

NEXT BIG QPF EVENTS AFTER NEXT WKND?  LOOKS LIKE CLIPPERS W
COASTAL SNE REDEVLOPMENT. WHEN?  RIGHT NOW WE'LL CONT WORKING
SOMETHING DECENT IN THE 15-19 TIME FRAME. THAT DOESNT REALLY SAY
MUCH RIGHT NOW BUT DONT THINK IT WILLB DRY HERE FOR 10 DAYS.

EQMT: NWR AT HYA HAS PBLMS TDY. BEING WORKED ON.
      MHT WIND BEING DEICED TDY.

.BOX...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING CTZ002>004.

MA...WINTER STORM WARNING MAZ002>016
     WINTER WX ADV MAZ017>019.
     CFA MIDDAY SAT HI TIDE MA 6-7,15-16,19
     NPW HIGH WIND WARNING MA 7,15>16
     NPW WIND ADVY S COAST TNGT MA 20-24
     NPW WIND ADVY 03Z TNGT-21Z SAT MA 4>6 12>14 17>19

NH...WINTER STORM WARNING NHZ011-012.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING RIZ001.
     WINTER WX ADV RIZ002>004.
     NPW WIND ADVY S COAST TNGT RI 5>7
     NPW WIND ADVY 03Z TNGT-21Z SAT RI 2>4

MARINE...GALES ALL WATERS.

$$
DRAG

73,Rob-KD1CY.
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator for NWS Taunton

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