[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
        WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
  earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2003 07:46:47 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <0b0801c2cdde$1a4e7b60$48d8accf@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all....

....Winter Storm Watch Posted for All of Southeast Massachusetts, Cape
Cod
and the Islands, Rhode Island and Windham County CT for Friday. This
Watch
Includes the Greater Boston and Providence Metropolitan Areas and is
along a
line from Southeast Middlesex and Southern Worcester Counties South and
east
through Cape Cod and the Islands...
....Snowfall Currently Expected to Fall "Just Short" of SKYWARN
Self-Activation Criteria But Will Be Monitored in Future Updates....

A Winter Storm Watch is posted for an area from the Greater Boston
Metropolitan area, Southeast Middlesex and Southern Worcester Counties of
Massachusetts South and East across Northeast CT, Rhode Island and
Southeast
Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands. A Nor'easter will form
off
the US East Coast and track 50-100 miles east of the "benchmark" which is
at
40N Latitude/70 W Longtitude. The snow is expected to begin Friday
Morning
and become heavy at times ending some time Friday Evening.

Preliminary Snowfall Amounts of 5-10" of snow are expected across South
Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands
with 3-8" possible in the rest of the watch area. Areas North and West of
the watch could see a 1-3" of snow. A slight shift in the track closer to
the coast or further away from the coast could grossly impact the current
snowfall forecast.

The SKYWARN Self-Activation threshold is at 10" or more of snow. We could
approach the minimal threshold across South Coastal Mass/RI and Cape Cod
and
the Islands. Spotters and Coordinators should monitor this storm closely
and
be prepared in case self-activation is required. In any case, spotters
are
requested to report snowfall amounts every 2" along with final snowfall
amounts to NWS Taunton by sending their reports to me or via the spotter
line.

The next message on this storm will be posted by 11:30 PM this evening.
Pages will be sent as needed during the day to update the threat. There
is
also the potential of a light to moderate snowstorm across the region for
Monday which will then usher in another bitterly cold air mass to the
region.

Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous WX
Outlook,
and Area Forecast Discussion:

WWUS41 KBOX 061002
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
502 AM EST THU FEB 6 2003

CTZ004-MAZ012>024-RIZ001>007-061743-
BARNSTABLE MA-BRISTOL RI-DUKES MA-EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
502 AM EST THU FEB 6 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS FOR WINDHAM
COUNTY CONNECTICUT AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF WORCESTER COUNTY
MASSACHUSETTS.  THIS WATCH INCLUDES:

IN MASSACHUSETTS...BOSTON...WORCESTER...TAUNTON...AND HYANNIS.
IN RHODE ISLAND...PROVIDENCE...NEWPORT...AND WESTERLY.
IN CONNECTICUT...PUTNAM AND WILLIMANTIC.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN
PASS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.  SNOW FROM THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING.
THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF AS THE STORM MOVES OFF PAST NOVA
SCOTIA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 6 INCHES.  IF THIS SNOW POTENTIAL
CONTINUES WHILE THE TIME OF THE STORM DRAWS CLOSER...THEN THE WATCH
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION.
$$

WTB

FLUS41 KBOX 061117
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
615 AM EST THU FEB 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

FRIDAY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BOSTON TO WORCESTER TO WILLIMANTIC FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW ON FRIDAY.  THIS INCLUDES ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.
MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE DAY AND VERY EARLY
EVENING ON FRIDAY.  THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS.  PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 5
TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.  AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS.

AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES APPEAR MOST LIKELY AT
THIS TIME ACROSS THE BOSTON METRO AREA...SOUTHERN WORCESTER
COUNTY...AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK
OF THE STORM TO THE NORTH COULD BRING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
THIS AREA.  AMOUNTS OF ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEAR MOST LIKELY FOR
NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

MONDAY...LATEST COMPUTER MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE A CHANCE OF SNOW
ON MONDAY.  THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SUBZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS BELOW -15 ARE POSSIBLE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  IF THE COLD AIR
MATERIALIZES...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

THOMPSON

FXUS61 KBOX 060915
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 AM EST THU FEB 6 2003

...MAIN FOCUS SHIFT ON POTL WINTER STORM FOR FRI...

SHORTER TERM...S/W RIDGE PROVIDE TRANQUIL CONDS TODAY WITH DMNSHING
WINDS.  TIMING OF PCPN MOVING IN LATE TNGT BASED ON ETA X SCTNS.

LONGER TERM...
LOOKS LIKE RELATIVELY STG +PNA AND -NAO PATTERN SHAPING UP.  MAIN
ISSUE IS POTL WINTER STORM FOR AT LEAST PART OF SNE FRI AND THEN
VRY COLD NXT WEEK AS POLAR VORTEX SAGS TWD JAMES BAY.

FOR FRI...00Z ETA AND GFS OPTNL RUNS NOT THAT FAR APART WITH
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH POS TILT H5 TROF PASSAGE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW
PASSING NR OR JUST A LTL SE 40N 67W ARND 00Z SAT.  BOTH SHOW CLSD...
THO QUITE PROGRESSIVE...H85 LOW AND ONLY OPEN TROF BY H7 LVL.
MODT FRONTOGENIC FORCING POTL AT LYR ENCOMPASSING AND A LTL ABV H85
LVL.  FM A JET DYNAMICS PERSPECTIVE...BOTH ETA AND GFS PLACE SNE IN
LF QUAD OF 170-180 KT 250 MB JET. NOTE 00Z GFS OPTNL RUN FAIRLY CLOSE
TO 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN. CAN MODEL CONTS ITS STGR SOLN WITH SHARPER H5
TROF...APRCHG NEUTRAL PSN AND 997 MB LOW NR BENCHMARK...BUT 00Z UKMET
LOOKS TO BE FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN GFS/ETA RUNS.  CAN APRS TO BE
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER IN CLOSER PSN OF SFC LOW...BUT NOTE SOME RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY.  H85 ISOTHERMS SHOW STG LO LVL TEMP GRAD SO
SUSPECT SOME RISK OF FASTER DEEPENING THAN PROGGED. GIVEN CONTINUITY
OF 00Z GFS AND NOW ETA TO 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...INCLINED TO HAVE
MODERATE LVL OF CONFID OF SFC LOW THAT PASSING 50 TO 100 MI E OF
BENCHMARK 00Z SAT. ESTIMATING .50 TO .75 INCHES QPF ALG AND SE OF
BOS-WST LN WITH ABT .25 INCHES ALG MA/NH BORDER.  BELIEVE 10 TO 1
RATIO LKLY IMMEDIATE S COAST AND MORE LIKE 15 TO 1 ELSW.

WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 06Z OUTPUT BFR FINAL DECISION ON WATCH AREA.
FIRST CUT WILL INCLUDE ALL OF SE MA UP TO NORFOLK CTY AND ALL OF
RI.  WILL ALSO GO AS FAR N AS BOS AND AS FAR NW AS SRN
ORH CTY AND WINDHAM CTY IN NE CT TO ALLOW FOR UNCERTAINTY
BUFFER...ALTHO BELIEVE AT THIS TIME PRBLY NOT MORE THAN ADVSY SN ALG
MA PIKE AND I-84 CORRIDOR. THANKS COORD OKX.

NXT SYS AFFECTS AREA ON MON PER GFS.  HAVE NOT SEEN LTST ENSEMBLES
ON THIS YET.  SIGNAL STG ENUF ON 00Z GFS RUN FOR THIS CLIPPER THAT
HAVE PUT CHC SN IN FOR SUN NGT AND MON.  CUD BE MORE SGNFCNT IF SFC
LOW TRACKS A LTL FURTHER S.  THIS S/W PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE GATES TO
ARCTIC AIR MASS...WITH -24 TO -26 H85 AIR.  THIS HAS POTL OF
RIVALING COLD TEMPS OF LAST MONTH.  ALTHO MRF HAS HAD HISTORY OF
COLDER SOLN THAN HAS BEEN REALIZED...HAVE STILL LWRD TUE/WED MAXES
AND WED MIN BY SVRL DEG MOST LOCATIONS.

MARINE...SEAS STILL RUNNING IN SCA CATEGORY OUTER WATERS PVC-ACK-BID-
MONTAUK.

.BOX...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH CTZ004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH MAZ012>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...RIZALL.
MARINE...SCA OUTER WATERS PVC TO MONTAUK THIS MRNG DUE TO SEAS.
         OTRW...SCA MAY BE REQD FRI AFTN ALL WATERS XCPT BOS
         HRBR WHERE ALL SCA MAY BE REQD FRI NGT.

$$

SHORT TERM...BABCOCK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503  (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929  (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo