[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
    flash floods+warlords+winter storms+callisto+tornados
        WHEN ALL ELSE FAILS.....AMATEUR RADIO !!
  earthquakes+monsters+hurricanes+evil gods+public service
               CT+ MD+ VT+ King Richards  Ren Faires

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;>
Date: Sun, 6 Apr 2003 08:56:01 -0400
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1
Message-ID: <001101c2fc3c$286f1100$b0d8accf@skywarnmainpc>

Hello to all...

...Winter Refuses to Let go of Southern New England...
...A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for all of Southern New England
except
for Southern New Hampshire for late Monday Morning through Monday Night
for
a moderate to possibly heavy snowfall....

Another late season winter storm will impact Southern New England
beginning
in the late morning hours on Monday in the western areas and in the early
afternoon in the eastern half of Southern New England. Snow will become
heavy at times and total snowfall amounts of 4-8" are expected across
much
of Southern New England with 6-10" in Eastern Hampden County
Massachusetts
and Hartford and Tolland Counties of CT. Other higher terrain locations
of
Southern New England may also see slightly higher amounts of snowfall
across
the region. Most of the snow will accumilate on grassy areas but travel
will
most likely still be hampered particularly in the higher elevations. Snow
may mix with sleet and rain on the islands of Nantucket and Martha's
Vineyard but much of the rest of South Coastal Rhode Island and South
Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod will receive snow from this
system.

SKYWARN Self-Activation does not seem likely for the area, however,
please
phone in snowfall reports to NWS Taunton every 2" and please remember to
forward final snowfall amounts for this event. Below is the Winter Storm
Watch Statement, and Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Taunton:

WWUS41 KBOX 061045 CCA
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
552 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2003...COR FOR EASTERN NORFOLK COUNTY

CTZ002-003-MAZ011-061750-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-
552 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM IS EXPECTED
MONDAY ACROSS THE GREATER HARTFORD AND GREATER SPRINGFIELD AREAS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 10AM MONDAY MORNING...AND BECOME
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS
BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT COULD RANGE AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10 INCHES. SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO ACCUMULATE MOSTLY OVER THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN AND GRASSY
SURFACES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 6 INCHES.

PERSONS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT.

$$

MAZ002>004-008>010-061750-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
552 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN
10 AM AND NOON MONDAY...AND BECOME STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING SHOULD RANGE FROM 4
TO 6 INCHES FROM WORTHINGTON TO NORTHAMPTON...GARDNER AND FITCHBURG.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT COULD RANGE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MOSTLY OVER THE COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
GRASSY SURFACES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 6 INCHES.

PERSONS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT.

$$


CTZ004-MAZ005>007-012>019-RIZ001>004-061751-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH
MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX
MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-WESTERN
ESSEX MA-WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK
MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
552 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN NOON AND 2PM MONDAY...AND BECOME STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY
EVENING SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM WILLIMANTIC TO
WORCESTER...AND PROVIDENCE TO PLYMOUTH. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES BY EVENING ARE EXPECTED FROM BOSTON TO BEVERLY...AND FROM
NEWTON TO NEWBURYPORT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
COULD RANGE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE
MOSTLY OVER THE COLDER INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN AND GRASSY SURFACES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 6 INCHES...OR A COMBINATION OF
HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICE.

PERSONS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT.

$$


MAZ020>024-RIZ005>007-061752-
BARNSTABLE MA-BRISTOL RI-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-WASHINGTON RI-
552 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM IS EXPECTED MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN NOON AND 2PM MONDAY...AND BECOME STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS BY
MONDAY EVENING SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM WESTERLY TO
NEWPORT...NEW BEDFORD TO FAIRHAVEN...AND FALMOUTH TO PROVINCETOWN
AS WELL AS MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET
AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD RANGE AS MUCH AS
4 TO 7 INCHES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE MOSTLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATING MORE THAN 6 INCHES...OR A COMBINATION OF
HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICE.

PERSONS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS
DEVELOPING HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT.

$$

STRAUSS

300
FXUS61 KBOX 060903
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2003

.SHORT TERM (TDA & TNGT)...
CDFNT MVG THRU FA ATTM...WITH ANOMALOUS LATE SEASON CAA TO FOLLOW
TDA BEHIND THE FRONT. H85 TEMPS DROP TO -6C TO 12C TDA ACRS RGN.
DESPITE GD MIX LYR...THESE NMBRS FAVOR COOLER MAV GUID. THUS...WL
LWR MAX TEMPS TDA TO LM40S...WITH U30S ACRS HIER TRRN. THESE TEMPS
ARE ABT 10-15 DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR EARLY APR. IN ADDITION...A STIFF
NW WND TDA...ESP THIS MORNING WL YIELD WND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S
(BRRR!).

AS CONFLUENT FLO SHIFTS EWD...ARCTIC HI NOSES SEWD INTO NE OVRNGT.
GD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNGT WITH CLR SKIES AND LGT WNDS...
SO WL LEAN TWD COLDER FWC MINS. TEMPS MAY LVL OFF AFT MIDNGT WRN ZNS
AS MID AND HI CLDNS OVERSPREAD THE RGN FM W TO E.

.MARINE...WL CONT WITH MARGINAL POST FRONTAL GALES THIS AM. MDL
SNDGS SUGGEST HIGHEST WNDS TO OCCUR ARND DAYBREAK ACRS ERN WTRS (MRR
RVR TO CC). SEAS WL BECOME QUITE STEEP TDA AS LEFTOVR E SWELL
COMBINES WITH BUILDING WNW WND WAVES. WNDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH TAFTN.
WL PICKUP WNDS TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING MON AFTN AS PGRAD TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF NXT SYSTEM. MDLS AGREE ON ABT A 26 MB PRES DIFF BETWEEN
ARCTIC HI AND CSTL LO MON AFTN/EVENING. WL EXCLUDE GALES FM MRR RVR
TO PVC...AS MDLS SUGGEST DEC WND FIELD FM S TO N.

.LONGER TERM (MON THRU SAT)...
LATEST 00Z GFS/ETA IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN OVERALL WINTER WX
SCENARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/ETA FORM
AN INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRES OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPE MON EVENING
WHICH TRACK ACRS THE OFFSHR WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
SOME FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AVBL WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING AN
H5 SW/V APPROACHING FROM THE W BY 18Z MON...AS WELL AS THE
DIVERGENT LFQ OF THE H3 JET MAX BETWEEN 18Z MON-00Z TUE.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ADVERTISED ON BOTH THE ETA AND GFS. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
SEEN ON BUFKIT AND PROJECTED SOUNDINGS SHOW OMEGA IN FAVORABLE
SNOW GROWTH AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN TOTAL QPF BETWEEN THE GFS/ETA...THOUGH
ONLY BY 0.25" AT MOST. LOOKING AT 0.40" TO 0.80" LIQUID
EQUIVALENT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS INDUCED BY NORTHEAST
FLOW AND AVBL OROGRAPHIC LIFT. UNSEASONABLY COLD AND STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRES IN PLACE TO ALLOW MUCH OF PCPN TO FALL AS SNOW
ACRS THE FA. LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLN
WHICH WOULD ALLOW SNOW TO BEGIN DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AND LAST
INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXAMINED CSI BANDING POTENTIAL WHICH COULD
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DURG THE AFTERNOON.
COORD WITH ALY/OKX/HPC AND DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND
AND CONNECTICUT. COULD SEE 4" TO 8" ACRS THESE AREAS WITH HIGHER
AMTS ACRS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. ONLY CONCERN WL BE ACRS S
COASTAL LOCS WHERE LLVL 1000-850 CRITICAL THCKS MAY RISE ENOUGH
FOR SLEET AND RAIN TO MIX FOR AWHILE MON EVENING. SECOND WAVE LOW
PRES FORMING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND ASSOCIATED RRQ H3 JET
MAY BRING ADDL PCPN THREAT WED. MRF/AVN CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
CUTOFF LOW FORMING ACRS THE SE US COASTLINE WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PCPN THREAT FRI. WL COMBINE MAIN FOCUS ON MON/MON NIGHT EVENT
AS SWITCH TO EDT GIVES CURRENT SHIFT LIMITED AVBL TIME.

MARINE: WL GO FOR GALES ACRS THE OUTER WATERS AND SCA
ELSEWHERE MON AFTERNOON/MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING INITIAL SFC WAVE.


.BOX...
CT...WINTER STORM WTCH MON AFTN & NGT 002>004
MA...WINTER STORM WTCH MON AFTN & NGT 002>022.
NH...NONE.
RI...WINTER STORM WTCH MON AFTN & NGT ALL ZNS.
MARINE...GLW THIS AM ALL XCPT SCA BOS HARBOR AND NARR BAY.

$$

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503  (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929  (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo