[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #1

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2002 00:10:54 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #1
Hello to all...

....Happy Holidays to all on the Email List with Best Wishes for a Merry
Christmas and a Happy New Year....
....Potential exists for a White Christmas but the White Christmas may
occur
due to a Major Nor'easter Snowstorm that could cause the heaviest
snowfall
so far this season for the region on Christmas Day....
....All SKYWARN Spotters and Coordinators should monitor future emails
and
pages concerning this event and Monitor their Local SKYWARN Frequency on
Christmas Day....
....SKYWARN Self-Activation is Probable for This Event from the I-95
Corridor North and West. SKYWARN Formal Activation is possible if there
is a
concern for damage to trees and power lines due to heavy wet snow in the
interior areas North and West of I-95....

The potential exists for a major snowstorm with the heaviest snowfall of
the
season for much of Southern New England. Models have hinted at this
system
for a week but are slowly coming to a consenus on the system. Top short
range wx models are in decent agreement but several other reputable
models
are not in agreement with the popular short-range guidance models on a
scenario that would bring a heavy snowfall to much of interior Southern
New
England North and West of the I-95 corridor. A Winter Storm Watch will
most
likely be issued on Christmas Eve Morning for portions of the region.

Snowfall amounts are tough to pinpoint but amounts as high as 1 Foot or
slightly more are possible over a portion of Southern New England
depending
on the track of the storm. The chance of snowfall that is 6" or more and
could potentially reach 1 foot or slightly more is 70% and the coverage
area
would likely be 60% of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. This
represents
the likelihood of SKYWARN Self-Activation. We currently expect the need
to
Self-Activate SKYWARN in this interior corridor for snowfall reports and
possibly wind information and any damage from heavy wet snow in areas
that
get a wet type of snow. Since their is no cold high pressure to the north
of
the system, there is some concern that a portion of Southern New England
could experience very heavy wet snow and that snow coupled with the
potential for winds to gust to 55 MPH could potentially cause some damage
to
trees and power lines. The chance of this type of activity is currently
25%
and this is the probability that has to be monitored and could result in
formal SKYWARN Activation which means Ops at NWS Taunton during Christmas
Day. The timeframe of need for any type of self-activation or formal
SKYWARN
Activation would be in the late afternoon and evening hours of Christmas
Day
but this will have to be monitored as the timing and intensity of the
storm
becomes more certain.

Again, models are very uncertain with the track of this system. A
deviation
of 50-100 miles west or east could swing the forecast signficantly in one
direction or another causing major shifts in precipitation type or who
gets
the heaviest precipitation. All are asked to continue with their plans
normally but keep abreast of the weather for Christmas Day through this
email list, NWS Taunton and NWS web-sites as well as media outlets over
the
next 24-48 hours and monitor the progress of this system. NWS Taunton
Operators and Coordinators should keep a sharp eye on this system.

The next update via email will be posted by 8 AM. Below are the following
NWS Taunton Products:

1.) NWS Taunton Special WX Statement
2.) NWS Taunton Hazardous WX Outlook
3.) Two NWS Area Forecast Discussions on the event.
4.) A Public Information Statement Discussing the Climatology of Snow on
Christmas Day.

WWUS81 KBOX 240442
SPSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-240900-

WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1142 PM EST MON DEC 23 2002

...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY...

A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW OR HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

INITIALLY IT APPEARS THE SOUTH COAST CAPE AND ISLANDS SHOULD BE
SPARED HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THE FRONT END OF THIS STORM AS
WARM OCEAN AIR BECOMES INVOLVED...BUT A PERIOD OF SUBSTANTIAL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
NOREASTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STORM IN COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TENTATIVE AMOUNTS OF THE VARIOUS PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE STILL BEING
EVALUATED...AND SHOULD BE RELEASED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.  A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TUESDAY...THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.  IT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION APPROACHING NANTUCKET
ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS...THEN THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL GREATER THAN SIX INCHES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS DAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A CHANGE IN THE
TRACK OR TIMING OF INTENSIFICATION OF THIS STORM WOULD CHANGE THE
TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
CURRENTLY...AN ALL SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE GREATER BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE AREAS.

TRAVEL MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THIS STORM...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO ALLOW
EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR HOLIDAY DESTINATION SAFELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

BELK

FLUS41 KBOX 232232
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
525 PM EST MON DEC 23 2002

.DAY ONE...TODAY

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THOSE AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WE ASK JUDICIOUS UTILITY OF THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION BY ALL
CUSTOMERS INCLUDING ANY MEDIA REBROADCAST.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ODDS ARE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
(70 PERCENT) FOR THE BIGGEST WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THIS
SEASON...SO FAR!

THIS COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR A FEW SPOTS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (25 PERCENT)...BECAUSE OF THE COMBINATION OF
WET  SNOW...GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

A SPECIAL WINTER OUTLOOK WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

ONE ITEM LACKING IN THIS STORM IS A STRONG POWERFUL COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE: WE AS A DAY FORECAST TEAM OF 3 SELF CALIBRATED A 70
PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF WARNING CRITERIA OCCURRING FOR AT LEAST 60
PERCENT OF THE TAUNTON FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD MEAN AN AVERAGE OF
6 INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS OR MORE THAN 8 TO 9 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
FOR MUCH THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IF THE TODAYS FORECAST STORM TRACK AND INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO
BEING CORRECT.

THE EVENT IN THE BOSTON PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR MAY BE BROKEN INTO TWO
PARTS BY SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS ABOUT
25 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE THE SOUTH COAST MAY ONLY HAVE A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET ON PAVEMENT TO START MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BUT THAT AREA COULD
BE BELTED BY BURST OF HEAVY SNOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR DRIVES SOUTHWARD ON 55 MPH NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS...WHILE THE STILL DEVELOPING AND ALREADY POWERFUL NOREASTER
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY.

WHILE ITS IMPACT ON THE AREA MAY BE LESS THAN A NORMAL COMMUTING
DAY... THIS STORM PROMISES TO BRING TRAVEL DELAYS FOR MANY IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT STATES.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT ODDS ARE
FAVORING A PASSAGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NANTUCKET AND CHATHAM.  A TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WOULD MEAN A LOT OF SNOW FOR THE I 95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD...BUT A TRACK OVER CAPE COD COULD RESTRICT
VERY HEAVY SNOW TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH WILL BE THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FIFTEEN
FOOT SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL
WATERS...CAUSING BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLY CASTING BEACH DEBRIS ON
VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE.

CLEANUP OPERATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE PROCEED STEADILY THURSDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 MPH AND TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALL
DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

DRAG

FXUS61 KBOX 232112 CCA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..COR MARINE SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EST MON DEC 23 2002

MOST CLDS ACRS RGN CONT N OF MASS PIKE AND ERN MA...THO VSBL STLT
LOOP SHOWS SOME CLRG OVR CT/NRN RI AT 17Z.  TEMPS GENERALLY RUNNING
FROM THE MID TO UPR 30S N AND AROUND 40 S.

WV STLT CHANNEL SHOWING THE ROTATING UPR LOW CNTR OVR NRN GRT LKS
WTH TWO SYSTEMS IN SRN STREAM...MAIN ONE OVR NRN TX/OK WTH SECOND SYS
OVR AZ.  APPEARS THIS SYS WL BCM MAJOR PLAYER FOR CWA ON CHRISTMAS.

SHORT TERM (TNGT TO CHRISTMAS)...
MDLS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVG SFC AND UPR LOW ERD OVR ERN
CANADA INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE SEA WAY TNGT/TUE.  HIGH PRES OVR MID
ATLC ALSO SHIFTS ERD.  THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR
WINTER STORM...WTH STRAINS OF 'IM DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS' IN
THE BKGRND.

ETA/GFS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DVLPMNT OF LOW PRES MOVG
FM OK/NRN TX THIS AFTN THO STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFS.  AS SEEN ON
NATIONAL RADAR TDY...CAN SEE THIS STORM TAPPING GULF MOIST.  GFS IS
STRENGTHENING STORM MCH MORE AFT REDEVELOPMENT OFF MID ATLC CST
THAN ETA...BUT BOTH MDLS HOLD OFF PCPN INTO RGN UNTIL ARND 12Z WED.
WL GO WTH THIS TIMING.  ONCE PCPN COMMENCES...WL DEPEND UPON
WHETHER SYS CUTS OFF AS GFS SUGGESTS...THO BOTH MDLS ARE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WTH THIS.  ANOTHER BIG QUESTION WL BE WHERE THE RN/SN
LINE SETS UP SINCE THERE IS NOT GOOD...COLD HIGH PRES OFF TO N OF
RGN AS THIS STORM TAKES SHAPE.  IN ANY EVENT...APPEARS THAT THERE WL
BE A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF SNW...ESP IF IT PASSES NR OR JUST INSIDE THE
BENCHMARK /40N 70W/ AS MDLS SUGGEST.  COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNW
BANDING WTH THIS STORM.  HWVR...STILL BIG QUESTIONS ABT STORM TRACK.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE MNLY FROM MID MRNG WED THRU CHRISTMAS NIGHT...
TAPERING OFF ACRS WRN SXNS AFT MDNT...THEN SOME WRAP ARND POSSIBLE ON
THU MNLY ALNG CST/CCOD AND ISS.

XPCTG THIS EVENT TO POTENTIALLY BE THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM OF THIS
WINTER SO FAR...ESP FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CWA.  CRNT WFO FCST
TEAM IS RATHER CONFIDENT THAT SNOW CRITERIA FOR WSW WL BE MET MNLY
FM 18Z WED-06Z THU FM INLAND MERRIMACK VLY THRU ORH AND PVD CTYS
THRU CT VLY WTH SOME QUESTION FOR BOS-PVD CORRIDOR SRD DUE TO
MIXING THANKS TO WRMR TEMPS WRAPPING ARND STORM OFF OCN.  AFTER
COLLABORATION WTH ADJACENT OFFICES...WL WAIT TO ISSUE WNTR STORM
WATCH UNTIL AFT NXT SET OF MDLS ARRIVE...WHICH SHD OCCUR DRNG THE
MID SHIFT.  WL FOLLOW UP ON WNTR WX OUTLOOK STATEMENT ARND TIME OF
AFTN PKG ISSUANCE.

WL LEAN TWD COOLER AVN MAV MOS GUID...THO WL HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT
ALNG CST/CCOD AND ISS.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE DEC 25 SNOWFALL RECORDS...
BOS    3.3     1974
PVD    2.8     1919
BDL    7.0     1966
ORH    5.8     1978
MQE    6.0     1902  (BLUE HILL)

LONGER TERM (WED NIGHT THRU MON)...
XPCT PCPN TO CONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT...THEN STORM PULLS AWAY AFT MDNT
WTH CRNT XPCTD TIMING.  COLDER AIR WORKS ARND ON BACKSIDE OF
STORM...WHICH WL CHNG ANY LEFTOVER MXD PCPN TO SN...AND COULD GIVE
EVEN THE CAPE AND ISS SOME ACCUMULATION BEFORE ENDING THU AFTN.
XPCT STRONG WNDS TO BLOW AS LOW PRES DEEPENS WHILE PULLING AWAY.
LARGE HIGH PRES XTNDS FM OH VLY ACRS TO THE ERN SLOPES OF ROCKIES
BY THU NIGHT.  XPCT PROLONGED PD OF DRY WX THRU XTNDD PTN OF FCST.
ONLY QUESTION WL BE FM LOW MOVG THRU NRN STREAM...BUT GFS
SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYS WL RMN WELL N OF CWA AS HIGH PRES RMNS IN
CONTROL.  ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVR TX/OK BY SUN NIGHT...
THEN MOVS ACRS GRT LKS BY MON NIGHT.  HIGH WORKS OFF CST...SO CWA
COULD GO INTO WRM SW FLOW.  ANY CHC OF PCPN THAT MAY WORK IN MAY BE
IN FORM OF RN LATE MON.

THANKS FOR THE COORD ALY...OKX...ERH.

MARINE: MARGINAL GALE LATE OUTER WATERS WITH CAA PULSE. KEPT IT
        GOING PER EARLIER FCST THO MARGINAL HRS AFTR 06Z. NO SCA
        INNER HARB TNGT.  THE BIG BLOW THIS WK WILL B LATE WED INTO
        EARLY THU. MARGINAL STORM FORCE GUSTS OUTER WATERS.

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GLW TNGT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS...EXCEPT SCA CC BAY BUT NONE BOS
         HARB AND NARR BAY TNGT BUT THERE AN SCA MAY B REQ WED.

$$

EVT/DRAG

FXUS61 KBOX 231956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
255 PM EST MON DEC 23 2002

...MAJOR CHRISTMAS WINTER SNOW STORM FOR A PORTION OF SNE
ADVERTIZED BACK ON 12/17 IS LIKELY...

WE NEED ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE WE CAN BE MORE DEFINITE.

THIS "SHUD" BE THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORM OF THE WINTER...SO FAR...FOR
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR FA. CERTAINLY AREAL COVERAGE OF >6".

FULL AFD FROM EVT IN ABT 90 MIN.

NO WATCH ATTM DUE TO LACK OF ADJACENT OFFICE AGREEMENT. NCEP AND BOX
IN WWE AGREEMENT. NOT FOR MEDIA OVERPLAY ATTM BUT THIS STORM STANDS
A GOOD CHC OF DELIVERING >6" OF SNOW OVER A FAIRLY LARGE PTN OF SNE
BTWN 14Z WED AND 08Z THU. AXIS AND INTENSITY OF LOW TRACK STILL
UNCERTAIN AND DUE TO CONCERNS ABT WARMING ALONG THE ENTIRE I95
CORRIDOR AND  UPSTREAM DVLPT IN TIME TO QUALIFY FOR WARNING STATUS
OUT THERE... HAVE HELD OFF.

NOT FOR MEDIA DISSEMINATION BUT BE AWARE THIS STORM CUD PRODUCE A FT
OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. GIVE US 24 HRS TO HONE IN ON BEST
AXIS AND SEE WHETHER MODEL SIGNALS CONT STRONG.  "IF EVERYTHING IS
ON CURRENT MODEL TRACK"...WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED 24 HRS FROM NOW.
THATS IF...

CONFIDENCE: WE AS A TEAM OF 3...EVT/NS/DRAG ARE ALREADY AT SELF
CALIBRATED 70 PCT CONFIDENCE OF WARNING CRITERIA OCCURRING FOR AT
LEAST 60 PCT OF THE FA. BANDING 2 TO 1 ASPECT RATIO "POSSIBLE" WITH
THIS EVENT SOMEWHERE RTE 2-I84.

THE GFS HAS A HABIT OF BEING TOO FAR S BUT EXCT SIGNALING BIG EVENTS
IN THE DAY 10-12 TIME FRAME THEN LOSING THEM IN DAY 3-6 THEN
BRINGING EM BACK. NO CHG FORESEEN IN THIS GFS PERF IN MDT NINO. IE
BIG EVENTS SLATED FOR NR 1/1 AND 1/3-4 TIME FRAME ON 12/17 ARE
PROBABLE WITH PTYPE ISSUES.

GFS SFC WINDS...BLV WISE TO USE CAUTION WHEN PPP GOES BLO 1000MB IT
PICKS UP NEXT AVBL SIGMA LVL AND SINCE LOW LVL GFS RES IS STILL NOT
AS GOOD AS ETA... BLV GFS TENDS TO GO TO HIGHER LVL THAN THE ETA
WOULD!

ETA HAS A TENDENCY TO DVLP TOO SOON TOO FAR NW... WE DEFINITELY
ANTICIPATE A STG COASTAL LOW AND IT MAY COME UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO
SNE...IE CC CANAL WITH SLEET AND RAIN TO PVD-BOS BUT LETS WAIT THIS
OUT FOR A GFS RUN OR 2 AND SOME MORE CANADIAN UK INPUT ETC.  BOTTOM
LINE... PCPN AND STG GALES ARE HAPPENING AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE
WINDS MERR RVR TO ACK TO BUZZ BAY.

QPF WDSPRD .6 TO 1.2".  SNOWGROWTH AND BANDING LOOK GOOD. WARM TEMPS
ALONG I95 CUR RESULT IN HEAVY WET SNOW AND ISO PWR OUTAGES. SEE HOW
ISSUED LATER IN THE DAY.

MARINE: CONTINUITY FOR LATE TNGT ADVERTIZED GALE/SCA.

PER STRAUSS: RECORD SNOWFALL FOR CHRISTMAS AT LOGAN 3.3" HAVE A SHOT
AT A RECORD.  WE MAY GET A PNS OUT ON WHITE CHRISTMAS.

TIDES CLARIFICATION FOR 12/25...WITHOUT SURGE ITS 10.1 BUT ADD ARD A
1 FT SURGE AND TIDE WILL BE RUNNING 11.2 FT AT BOSTON DURING THE MID
AFTN 12/25 HI TIDE CYCLE. WITH STG NE WNDS...SOME MINOR CSTL FLOODING
IS A PSBLTY AT THE TIME OF THIS HI TIDE. WL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS
TIME GETS CLOSER. WH WILL HAVE TO EXCEED 10 FT AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE
TO START THE DEBRIS TOSS AND IF WE CAN MUSTER 15 FT...WHICH IS A
POSSIBILITY IF YOU BLV THE GFS GWW CANADIAN GLOBAL WHICH APPEARS TO
BE THE STEADIEST PERFORMER ON THIS ENTIRE "FCST/OUTLOOK" SO FAR
(GFS/UK/EC/NOGAPS ENS) AND IS THIS FCSTRS CHOICE FOR A HIT...THEN
MINOR CF IS REALISTIC BUT TIMING MEANS ALOT FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
TIMING MAY BE NEARLY INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR MINOR CF ON "TENTATIVELY
MODEL PROJECTED" SLY OR ELY GALES/STORMS 12/31-1/5.

MODEL BIAS: HPC MACHINE ANALYSIS OF MODEL BIAS'S HAS BEEN FIXED AND
ITS RESULTS ARE A PLAYER IN THE FCSTS ARD HERE NEXT 2 WEEKS. 1) GFS
MINOR WARM BIAS JBAY TO NJ 72 HRS BECOMES BY DAY5-120 HRS A SOMEWHAT
LARGER BIAS...ESPECIALLY COLD BIAS UP TO 120M PAST 5 CYCLES W OF HUD
BAY IN W CANADA! SIMILAR CMC/EC/UK TO VARYING DEGREES.  WHATS THIS
MEAN...AGAIN THE MODELS KEEP BREAKING DOWN THE RDG IN W CANADA AND
NOT QUITE ENOUGH TROFING IN NEW ENGLAND... IE SRN STREAM ENERGY IS
MORE DEFINED WHEN IT ARRIVES HERE AND A LITTLE COLDER AIR LYING IN
WAIT TO FOLLOW THESE COASTAL EVENTS!  TRANSITION FROM THE WARMTH OF
LAST THU-THIS PAST WKND IS NOW OCCURING AND WILL B HARD PRESSED TO
WARMUP SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT 2 WEEKS UNLESS BRIEFLY WITH INSIDE RUNNER.
SO TRENDING TO NR NORMAL TEMPS IS NOW HERE AND CONTS INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF JANUARY 03. SINCE VARIANT (INTENSITY WISE) +PNA AND -NAO
PREDISPOSES THE ATMOSPHERE FOR WINTRY PCPN AND COASTAL DVLPMTS (OR
SHUD WE SAY REDEVELOPMENTS FOR 12/31-1/5).

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GLW TNGT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS...SCA BOS HBR & NARR BAY.

$$

DRAG

NOUS41 KBOX 232101 CCA
PNSBOX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 PM EST MON DEC 23 2002...CORRECTED HARTFORD DAILY SNOW TOTAL

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF THE SNOWIEST CHRISTMASES ON RECORD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS THE LAST TIME SNOW WAS
OBSERVED FALLING ON CHRISTMAS DAY. OFFICIAL SNOW ON GROUND REPORTS
ARE TAKEN AT 7AM EST.

LOCATION:   HEAVIEST SNOW   SNOW ON GROUND    LAST SNOW   NORMAL
            CHRISTMAS DAY   CHRISTMAS DAY     CHRISTMAS   CHANCE
---------------------------------------------------------------
BOSTON       3.3" 1974       11.0" 1995      TRACE 1995    25 %

HARTFORD     7.0" 1966       11.0" 1945      TRACE 2000    30 %

PROVIDENCE   2.8" 1919        6.0" 1948/1963  0.5" 1993    20 %

WORCESTER    5.8" 1978       22.0" 1970       0.6" 1993    40 %

KEENE NH     9.8" 1966       19.0" 1970       1.3" 1995    60 %

$$

STRAUSS/JACKSON

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503  (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929  (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo