[HCRA] Fw: Storm Coordination Message #2

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Rob Macedo" <rmacedo@rcn.com>
Date: Tue, 24 Dec 2002 07:55:50 -0500
Subject: Storm Coordination Message #2
Hello to all...

....Major Winter Storm Will Affect Southern New England Christmas Day
with
Heavy Snow and Strong Winds Affecting the Region....
....Winter Storm Watch Posted for Wednesday and Wednesday Night from
Northern Bristol, Northern Plymouth Counties Massachusetts and Kent
County
RI North and West across the rest of Massachusetts, Rhode Island,
Connecticut and Southern New Hampshire...
....SKYWARN Self-Activation Remains Probable for the Region with the
Potential for Ops at NWS Taunton if the Storm Produces Strong Gusty Winds
Coincident with the Heavy Snowfall....

A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for much of Southern New England
away
from coastal locations for Christmas Day. A powerful winter storm will
affect the region bringing the threat for Heavy Snow, strong to possibly
damaging winds and a bout of minor coastal flooding for the region. Here
is
a threat assessment for the region:

1.) Heavy Snowfall

The heaviest snowfall at this time is expected across Southern New
Hampshire
and Western and Central Massachusetts. Total snowfall in this region
could
be 1 foot or more across this region. Also the region along and north of
Route 2 in Eastern Massachusetts could also see one foot or more of
snowfall. Across the Boston-Providence Corridor and possibly into
portions
of interior Eastern Massachusetts for areas such as Southeastern
Middlesex
and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts, there is a chance that snow will
mix
with sleet and rain for a time before changing back to all snow. This
should
hold down snow amounts a bit in this area but snowfall totals should
range
in the 6" or more category in these areas. Parts of the area within a
mile
or two of the coastline may see less snow as a strong easterly fetch
holds
down snowfall amounts. Across Northern Rhode Island and Northern CT,
amounts
approaching 10 or 12" are possible.

Across South Coastal Massachusetts, South Coastal Rhode Island and Cape
Cod
and the Islands, snow will turn over to rain and then end as a period of
heavy snowfall before ending. Snowfall amounts are expected to be just a
few
inches in this area at this time.

A southward deviation in storm track could grossly affect this forecast
for
heavy snowfall and all should monitor future forecasts.

2.) Wind Threat

Strong winds are expected with this system as it rapildy intensifies over
the region. Winds of severe critieria, 58 MPH or greater, may occur
particularly across Southeast Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island.
Winds
of this magnitude could cause tree and power line damage in this area and
will need to be monitored closely. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainity with the strength of the wind fields so no High Wind Watches
or
Advisories are posted at this time.

Strong Winds will also affect interior locations with the potential for
Wind
Advisory criteria in these areas. The winds may cause blowing and
drifting
snow and in areas where the snow is heavy and wet, the wind along with
the
weight of the snow could cause tree and power line damage. Considerable
uncertainity again exists with the strength of the winds and will be
monitored in future updates.

3.) Minor Coastal Flooding

There is the threat of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide
over
north and east facing beaches of Eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod
and the Islands. Currently, the duration of fetch will be too short to
cause
a significant coastal flood threat but this will be monitored in future
forecasts.

4.) SKYWARN Activation Status

We expect that SKYWARN Nets will need self-activation late Wednesday
Afternoon and Wednesday Night for snowfall reports, location of the
rain-snow line and wind measurements and wind damage reports. If the
threat
for strong winds coupled with heavy snow becomes more certain and
widespread, the potential exists that NWS Taunton Ops would be activated
for
this event as well. This will be firmed up in future Storm Coordination
Emails.

Pages will be sent throughout the day to update the threat of this
system.
The next email will be posted between 5 and 11 PM this evening.

Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous WX
Outlook
and NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion on this major snowstorm:

WWUS41 KBOX 241035
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
525 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>004-241443-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
525 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE WINTER STORM WATCH
COVERS ALL BUT THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO STAY AS ALL SNOW.
AMOUNTS OF A FOOT OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.  IN THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE TO HARTFORD CORRIDOR...THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SLEET OR RAIN FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SIX OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE BY THE TIME THE STORM TAPERS OFF
TO FLURRIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG EAST FACING SHORELINES
AROUND THE TIME OF THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.  THE TIDE
ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO RUN 2 OR 2.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  WAVES MAY BUILD TO 10
TO 15 FEET JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT
TO THE NORTH DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.  GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE
WIND WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AGAIN...THIS IS A WATCH AT THIS POINT...WHICH MEANS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK.  A SLIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN THE
TRACK COULD SHIFT THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS SOUTHWARD.  STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.  INFORMATION IS
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

$$

THOMPSON/FIELD

FLUS41 KBOX 241149
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-261300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
645 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
CHRISTMAS DAY AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.  A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXCEPT CAPE COD...THE ISLANDS...AND THE MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND SOUTH COASTS.  THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TOTAL STORM
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF SIX OR MORE INCHES IN THE WATCH
AREA...INCLUDING THE BOSTON...HARTFORD AND PROVIDENCE METRO AREAS.
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW.

THE WIND WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY...AND
COULD GUST 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS
THE WIND BECOMES NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER EXPOSED TERRAIN.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A WIND ADVISORY OR EVEN HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED LATER FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THIS STORM MAY ALSO CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.  TIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RUN 2 TO
2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FORTUNATELY...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT
BOSTON HARBOR IS ONLY 10.1 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

NO SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL...AS APPROPRIATE USING
PRESCRIBED PROCEDURES...DURING THE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT STORM.

$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

THOMPSON

FXUS61 KBOX 240853
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2002

...MAJOR WINTER STORM LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND XMAS DAY/NGT...

...SHORT TERM...
SCT SNOW SHWRS AFFECTED EEN/AFN/ORE OVRNGT.  RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW
FLRYS IN CNTRL MA AND NE CT.  THINK THESE WL DRY UP AFTER SUNRISE
AS H8 RH DRIES OUT BEHIND SHORT WAVE MOVG THRU RGN ATTM.  STILL
LOOKING FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.  LTL CHG TO TEMP FCST
FOR TDA.  A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PRVS FCST FOR TNGT INTERIOR
AREAS. WNDS GUSTG TO 38 KTS ATTM AT BUZZ BAY AND TO 32 KTS IN THE
BERKSHIRES. AFTER BRZY START...WNDS SHUD DMSH THIS AFTN. WNDS WL TURN
TO THE N AND NE OVRNGT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER
STORM.

...LONG TERM...
ENUF CONSENSUS NOW ON VARIOUS MODELS AND RUN TO RUN FOR FAIRLY HI
CONFIDENCE OF 1.0 - 1.5 IN QPF FOR MUCH OF SNE.  LEANING MORE TWD
GFS DUE TO SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT HISTORY WITH THIS EVENT BY THIS
MODEL AND SIMILARITY OF 00Z OPTNL RUN TO PRIOR ENSEMBLES.  DUE
NOTE...HWVR...THAT CANADIAN GEM SIMILAR TO LATEST ETA RUN...AND
CONVCTN IN GLF MAY FAVOR STGR RIDGE AHD OF SYS AND PSBLY DEEPER AND
FURTHER W SFC LOW.  BOTTOMLINE...LOOKING AT TRACK OF SFC LOW
SOMEWHERE BTWN ACK AND BENCHMARK.  LTR OPTNL RUNS AND SREF SHUD
HELP REFINE AS WE GET CLOSER TO EVENT.  STG H85 INFLOW ELY JET OF AT
LEAST 55 KTS SUG STG COLD AIR CONVEYER BELT ACTIVITY...MOISTURE
CONVRGC AND UPLIFT OVR ORH HILLS...MONADNOCKS AND ERN SLPS OF BERKS.
CORE UVM CUTS THRU FVRBL SN GRWTH RGN MOST OF AREA.  WITH STRENGTH
OF H7 CLSD LOW...MID LVL FRONTOGENIC FRCG PSBL WITH ONE OR MORE
BANDS OF ENHANCED PCPN.

AS IS SO TYPICAL OF SNE EVENTS...SPCLY WITH SRN STRM SYSTEMS...PTYPE
IS AN ISSUE.  BOTH ETA AND GFS SHOW WRM LYR 8-10K FT...ALTHO GFS
KEEPS LYR BLO 0C EVEN BOS-PVD CORRIDOR WHEREAS ETA GOES A LTL ABV
0C EVEN AT ORH AND BAF.  OTHER AND PERHAPS MORE SGNFCNT ISSUE IS
LKLY TO BE INFLUENCE OF MARINE BNDRY LYR...E OF CSTL FRONT.  WITHOUT
SGNFCNT SFC HI CNTRD OVR SE CANADA...BELIEVE ENUF MARINE LYR
WARMING FOR AT LEAST RA MIX TO AND PERHAPS A TAD NW OF BOS-PVD
CORRIDOR.  DONT THINK WRMR MARINE BNDRY WILL PENETRATE TO LWM-ORH-BDL
LN.  AS LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES E OF 70W...XPCT CSTL FRONT TO MOV SE
AND SEE RA OR MXD PCPN OVR MUCH OF SE MA CHNG TO SN.  BELIEVE 50 PCT
PROB OR GRTR OF RCHG WINTER STORM CRIT ALG AND N OF PYM-PVD-HFD LN...
AND WILL ISSUE WATCH FOR THIS AREA.  LTR SHIFT(S) MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER XTNDG WATCH EVEN A BIT FURTHER S FOR WED NGT IF LTR RUNS SUG
MR SRTHLY TRACK IN LN WITH ERLR ENSEMBLES.

WITH REGARD TO CSTL FLD THRT...ERLY THINKING IS 2 - 2.5 FT SURGE ON
TOP OF 10.1 FT MLLW WED AFTN HI TIDE AT BOS...AND SEAS 10 - 12 FT
AT BOS BUOY BY ARND MID AFTN.  THUS...ATTM THINKING MINOR CSTL
FLOODING A STG PSBLTY WITH NEITHER ENUF DURATION OR HI ENUF ASTRO
TIDE TO RCH WRNG CRIT.

HERE IS A LIST OF THE DEC 25 SNOWFALL RECORDS...
BOS    3.3     1974
PVD    2.8     1919
BDL    7.0     1966
ORH    5.8     1978
MQE    6.0     1902  (BLUE HILL)

POTL ALSO EXISTS FOR RCHG HI WIND CRIT SE CSTL SXNS AND WIND ADVSY
CRIT ADDTNL ZNS LATE WED AND WED NGT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY NOW
FOR ANY HEADLINES.

.BOX...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH WED/WED NGT CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH WED/WED NGT MAZ002>019.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH WED/WED NGT NHZ011-012.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH WED/WED NGT RIZ001>004.
MARINE...GLW MONTAUK TO ACK TO PVC...BUZZ BAY...SOUNDS.
         SCA MERR RVR TO PYM...CC BAY...BOS HARBOR...NARR BAY.

$$

THOMPSON...LONG TERM
FIELD...SHORT TERM

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503  (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929  (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo