[HCRA] Possible wx for 25 Dec.

[et-n1qko@juno.com]

Hello to all...

....Major Snowstorm Possible for Christmas Day....

Potential exists for a major snowstorm on Christmas Day. The potential
exists for up to 12" of snow for Christmas Day across Southern New
England
for Christmas Day. Models have been flip-flopping considerably on this
storm
so there are uncertainties. If things continue as slated, Storm
Coordination
emails will be posted to the general email list.

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous WX Outlook and
Special WX Statement from NWS Taunton:

FXUS61 KBOX 230934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002

.SHORT TERM (TDY AND TNGT)...
S/WV TROF EXITING FA ATTM...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT MVG THRU E ZNS
AT 06Z. CAA BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO ABT -10C
TAFTN. MDL RH XSXNS SUGGEST LK EFFECT SC SPILLING OVR INTO WRN ZNS
TDY AND PSSBLY SOME OCEAN EFFECT SC FOR ACK.  SO WL WORD FCST P.SUNNY
W ZNS AND ACK...M.SUNNY ELSEWHERE.

NXT FEATURE TO IMPACT SNE IS S/WV TROF ACRS WRN ONTARIO ATTM. THIS
JET ENERGY SWINGS THRU FA THIS EVENING. DIFFLUENT THICKNESS FIELD
AHEAD OF S/WV TROF SUGGEST SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE. IN ADDITION...
FA IN LF QUAD OF STG UPR LVL JET FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT. ALTH ATM QUITE
DRY AND STABLE...THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES...
PRIMAIRLY N AND NW ZNS.

MARINE-WISE THIS PD...WNDS GENERALLY 20-25 KTS TDY AND THEN INC TNGT
WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE STG CAA AS S/WV TROF EXITS
INTO THE GLF OF ME.

.LONGER TERM (TUE THRU SUN)...
MDLS NOW COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST TIME WITH THIS XMAS DAY
SYSTEM.  ETA IS 10 MB WEAKER THAN GFS AND IS JUST N OF 40/70
BENCHMARK 00Z THU.  GFS NOW DEEPENS LOW INTO MAJOR STORM AT 984 MB
VERY CLOSE TO BENCHMARK AND CONTS BOMBING IT TO 977 MB AS IT PASSES
E OF GEORGES BANK WED NGT.  CANADIAN MDL ALSO VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH
GFS.  NEW UKMET...PER MPC...IS NOT NEARLY AS WELL DVLPD.  PER COORD
WITH NCEP...GFS TRACK HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OF THE MDLS
ALTHO EVEN IT HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING LATELY.  THE TREND IN ALL MDLS
HAS BEEN TO GRDLLY SHIFT NWD TWD THE BENCHMARK WITH TIME.  WL ISSUE
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK SPS...SINCE IF THE CANADIAN/GFS SCENARIO PANS
OUT...WE WILL HAVE QUITE A STORM ON OUR HANDS.

TOTAL LIQUID EQUIV QPF FM THE GFS IS ABOUT 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES ON A
LINE FROM NW SUBURBS OF NEW YORK CITY NEWD THRU NRN CT...CNTRL AND
ERN MA...AND NRN RI. MDL THICKNESSES WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS WOULD
MOST LIKELY ALL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  THUS A STRIPE OF A FOOT OF
SNOW PSBL IN THESE AREAS.  MORE MARGINAL VALUES MEAN A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW OVER THE ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY ALSO THE CAPE...CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW WED NGT BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF.  THE WNDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCRS TO GALE FORCE BY LATE WED AND WED NGT.

DO NOT WANT TO GO OFF THE DEEP END JUST YET ON THIS STORM AS WOULD
LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER FEW RUNS BE CONSISTENT.  TIMING WISE...LOOKS
LIKE THE SNOW WL SPREAD ACRS SNE FM SW TO NE AFTER MID CHRISTMAS
EVE AND IT SHOULD BE SNOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE
DAY.  THERE THEORETICALLY COULD BE A BIT OF A LULL ERLY AFTN WED
THEN ANOTHER BURST IN ASSOCN WITH UPR LVL IMPULSE.  BY THE WAY...GFS
HAS H7 LOW CLOSING OFF OVR SNE DURING THE DAY ON WED.

TIDES WL BE RUNNING 11.2 FT AT BOSTON DURING THE MID AFTN HI TIDE
CYCLE.  WITH STG NE WNDS...SOME MINOR CSTL FLOODING IS A PSBLTY AT
THE TIME OF THIS HI TIDE. WL NEED TO WATCH THIS AS TIME GETS
CLOSER.

WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND CAA ON THU...HV LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS
ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES IN SVRL PLACES.

NO CHG TO RMDR FCST AFT THU.

.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA ALL WTRS TDY.
         GLW TNGT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS...SCA BOS HBR & NARR BAY.

$$

SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FIELD

FLUS41 KBOX 231108
HWOBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-241030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
608 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THOSE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON CURRENT OUTLOOKS/WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PLEASE REFER TO THE NWS-TAUNTON WEB SITE AT (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX .

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK OF
THE STORM IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.  A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET
WOULD MEAN A LOT OF SNOW FOR INTERIOR AREAS...BUT A TRACK VERY FAR
TO THE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET COULD RESTRICT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  STILL ONLY A LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THE TRACK.  ANOTHER ITEM TO WATCH WILL BE
THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SINCE THE TIDES WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH
IN THE MID AFTERNOON AND SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FOR WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
LINK (ALL LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/BOX/WARNINGCRITERIA.SHTML .

FIELD/NOCERA

WWUS81 KBOX 231034
SPSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-NHZ011-012-RIZ001>007-231807-

WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
533 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002

...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY...

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET...THEN ACROSS
GEORGES BANK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THIS TRACK IS BECOMING A BIT
MORE CERTAIN...THERE STILL COULD BE IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TRACK LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS...THEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE SOUTH COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS...MAY EXPERIENCE AS MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WHILE A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS DESIRABLE TO SOME...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS MAY
BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY THIS MIDWEEK WEATHER.  PLEASE STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.  YOU CAN ALSO CHECK THE
LATEST ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.  FROM THERE...CLICK ON THE
AREA IN WHICH YOU ARE TRAVELING AND YOU CAN VISIT THE LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICE SERVING THAT AREA.

$$
FIELD

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
SEMCARES Emergency Coordinator


                               Eric Tuller   N1QKO
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