[HCARC] Solar Noise Burst

[Kerry Sandstrom]

Harvey,

There have been predictions all over the place for this cycle and what 
follows.  For us it actually doesn't matter.  This is a case for "live 
for today".  The current conditions are the best we've had in some 
time.  We don't really know how long they will last, so we really do 
need to take advantage of what the sun has given us.

Yes, you have seen some great sunspot cycles, but the sunspot number is 
only part of the story.  In 1957/58 conditions were great, however, the 
distribution of operators worldwide and the equipment they had to use 
were far from ideal.  We now have hams in places we seldom if ever heard 
in years past.  In the hands of an average operator, today's equipment 
is far superior to what was available in the 50's.  Very few DX stations 
had 6 m equipment and DXpeditions seldom included  6 m.  Compare that to 
what we have now.  Take a look at the antennas, in the late 50's HF 
antennas with gain were uncommon, most had dipoles and verticals with an 
occasional tribander.  We also didn't have the internet and inexpensive 
worldwide phone service which seem essential to DXing now.  How many 
stations in the 50's had panadaptors which are used to spot band 
openings.  Granted, the best operators back then didn't need all this, 
but the average operator today does!

The concentration on sunspots and sunspot numbers is deceptive. Sunspots 
are only a rough indication of the solar radiation that does create the 
ionosphere.  It isn't exact and it doesn't directly follow.  If there 
are fundamental changes happening in the sun, we have no reason to 
expect the relationships between sunspots, 10.7 cm solar flux and the 
ionosphere to remain constant.  These fundamental changes haven't been 
shown to be happening but some have claimed they are occurring.

Tandberg-Hanssen using data from Waldmeier has a chart showing the mean 
and extreme values of various observed solar cycle parameters. The time 
from min to max is 4.5 years (ave), 2.6 and 6.9 years for extremes.  The 
time between solar cycle maximums is 10.9 years with extremes of 7.3 - 
17.1 and between minimums is 11.1 years with extremes of 9.0 and 13.6.  
The average monthly mean max sunspot number (through 1961) is 108.2 with 
extremes of 48.7 - 201.3.  The NOAA/SWPC listed predicted smoothed max 
sunspot number is 82 +/- 7 for Jun 14.  To say the sunspot cycle is a 
cycle is perhaps stretching the truth!  It looks to me like this is a 
below average cycle, but it is still much better than it could be.

To sum it up, no one and I mean no one has a clue what the sun will do 
next.  While the conditions are not as good as they have been in years 
past, they aren't that bad.  To offset the current conditions, we have 
never had equipment this good in the hands of a typical operator nor  
have we ever had the worldwide distribution of hams that we currently 
have.  You should get on now and not sit around hoping that conditions 
will improve.  You may miss out!

Kerry