[HCARC] Solar Noise Burst

[Harvey N. Vordenbaum]

On the pessimistic side here's someone's prediction of future solar
activity:

Randy Crews, W7TJ, has been thinking about where we are in this sunspot
cycle, and what we might see in the near future.

He wrote, "It is now common knowledge that Cycle 24 is the lowest cycle in
100 years, and also being one of the slowest starts of any cycle in our
radio lifetime. (Historically - with no exceptions - cycles that begin
slowly are very low in peaks; the opposite of cycles that get off to a fast
start.) Of the double peaked cycles (Cycle 22 and Cycle 23) this is the
first cycle where the second peak has been higher than the first. November
2011 SF=153, February
2014 SF=170.

"The second peak has also afforded us a higher extended elevated solar flux,
averaging 150 for the six months from November 2013 through April 2014.
Quite a performance to say the least, and finally igniting 10 and 12 meters.

"However, prior to making plans to put up 10 and 12 meter stacked Yagis, we
all need to be aware we are probably past the peak of Cycle 24 because we
are approximately 70 months into this cycle from the low of the lows set in
August of 2008. (The official low is booked as December 2008, however
whatever date is used, it is late in this cycle.)

"What is really behind the recent surge we had last spring and winter is not
only the  great combination of consistent monthly sunspots, but most
importantly - the size and magnetic complexity was the largest of this cycle
and mirrored many of the 200+ Solar Flux days we saw in Cycle 23 and 22.

"This trend is now on the decline, and aligning with Penn and Livingston's
studies and measurements citing a steady decline in magnetic strength and
complexity of sunspots since 1995. (We basically experienced a pause in a
downtrend.) Livingston projects a continuation of the trend will result in
virtually no sunspots by 2016, and Cycle 25 being even lower than Cycle 24.

"NASA says we may be heading into a mini Maunder Minimum. Putting all this
together, we will be hard pressed to see good 10 and 12 meter DX propagation
going forward. 15, 17 and 20 meters will most likely be the workhorse
high-bands."

Someone wrote about a Maunder Minimum in about 1979 and the next peak was
one of the best we ever had.
I'm afraid I've already experienced the best radio conditions in my
lifetime...1955-1959, 1981-1984, etc.
Hv


-----Original Message-----
From: Kerry Sandstrom [mailto:kerryk5ks at hughes.net] 
Sent: Thursday, June 12, 2014 9:33 AM
To: Harvey N. Vordenbaum; hcarc at mailman.qth.net
Subject: Re: [HCARC] Solar Noise Burst

Harvey,

Unfortunately the radiation from the sun that creates the ionosphere that we
need for long distance propagation also creates the ionosphere that absorbs
radio waves and reduces signal strength. The late afternoon and evening are
really pretty good as the absorption decreases a lot quicker than the MUF as
the sun begins to set.  There were a few times when 17 m was pretty dead but
the dead periods were separated by periods of pretty good conditions.  No
matter what, these are probably the best conditions we've had in a while and
we can only hope that it will continue into the fall.

Kerry

On 6/12/2014 7:51 AM, Harvey N. Vordenbaum wrote:
> I thought the HF bands sounded pretty poor (dead) yesterday.  When I 
> looked at spaceweather.com I saw why.
> Hv
>
>