[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 42

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 022100
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2003
 
..DRILL! WILFRED STILL STRENGTHENING...BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS...
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY 
LARGO SOUTHWARD AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTHWARD.  THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO BAYPORT.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF KEY LARGO ARE DISCONTINUED.  PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT IN THIS AREA UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA.  A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM MATANZAS WESTWARD
TO PINAR DEL RIO.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.9 WEST OR JUST NORTH OF THE
DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA.
 
WILFRED HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/HR...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN OBSERVATION AT THE
DRY TORTUGAS IS  975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA ARE LIKELY.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.9 N... 82.9 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD
..WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/022100m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/022100.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise