[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 41

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 021500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2003
 
..DRILL! WILFRED BATTERING THE FLORIDA KEYS...
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING... 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY
ON THE EAST COAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM NORTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO STUART...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO BAYPORT.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE GULF
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA.  A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM MATANZAS WESTWARD
TO PINAR DEL RIO.
 
AT 11 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...30
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.  THE EASTERN PART OF THE EYEWALL IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SERIOUS
DANGER TO LIFE AND PROPERTY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  AN UNOFFICIAL GUST TO 94 MPH AT KEY WEST WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS  981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.  SANTA CLARA CUBA HAS RECEIVED ABOUT 11 INCHES OF RAIN SO
FAR.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA.  WATER LEVELS 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...NEAR MARATHON.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 81.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 981 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/021500m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/021500.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise