[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 021100
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH 100 MPH WINDS...
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD.  HURRICANE WARNINGS
FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUST NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...AT BOCA RATON...TO
STUART.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO BAYPORT.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MATANZAS WESTWARD TO PINAR DEL
RIO...CUBA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
 
AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
..90...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
..22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS NEAR MIDDAY.  DO NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE LOCATION AND TRACK OF
THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAIN COVER A WIDE
SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR..IN A SMALL
AREA EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  NEAR 6 AM EDT...1000Z...FOWEY
ROCKS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 68 MPH...
WHILE VARADERO CUBA REPORTED GUSTS FROM THE WEST TO 80 MPH...128
KM/HR.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
MAINLY TO EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
  
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. 
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 81.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB. 
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
 
RAPPAPORT/AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN
NNNN

The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/021100m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/021100.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise