[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 40

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 020900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH 100 MPH WINDS...
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUST NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH...AT BOCA RATON...TO
STUART.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO BAYPORT.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MATANZAS WESTWARD TO PINAR DEL
RIO...CUBA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES
..135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
..22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TODAY.  DO NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE
CENTER.  THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAIN COVER A WIDE
SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR..IN A SMALL AREA EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  FOWEY ROCKS
JUST REPORTED GUSTS TO 73 MPH...117 KM/HR.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
MAINLY TO EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
  
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. 
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N... 80.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. 
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/020900m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/020900.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise