[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 36

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 010900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU MAY 02 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED STILL OVER EASTERN CUBA... 
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM
BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS.  THIS INCLUDES MONROE...MIAMI DADE...BROWARD AND COLLIER
COUNTIES.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FFORM STUART TO DEERFIELD BEACH
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND FROM SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD
TO BONITA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.  THIS INCLUDES PALM
BEACH...MARTIN...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  THE HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW EXTENDED TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI.  INTERESTS THERE
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC...AND
LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND...AND IS DISCONTINUED FOR JAMAICA.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.7 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS
ABOUT 75 MILES ...120 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT
400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST COAST OF CUBA FOR MOST OF TODAY.  DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
PRECISE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANES
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST LATER TODAY WHEN THE CENTER OF WILFRED IS
FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 155 MILES...250 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
  
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N... 76.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
NNNN
NNNN

The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/010900m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/010900.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise