[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 35

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 010300
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED MAY 01 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI...FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD...FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...FOR CAYMAN
BRAC...AND LITTLE CAYMAN ISLAND.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THIS
INCLUDES MONROE...MIAMI DADE...BROWARD AND COLLIER COUNTIES.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY EVENING...AND A HURRICANE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
THURSDAY MORNING.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF HURRICANE
WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  75.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.  DO NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE LOCATION AND TRACK OF
THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAINS COVER A WIDE
SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE THE CENTER
OF WILFRED IS OVER CUBA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 75.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...THURSDAY.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/010300m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/010300.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise