[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 33

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 301500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

..WILFRED APPROACHING EASTERN CUBA... 
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI...FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD...FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THIS
INCLUDES MONROE...MIAMI DADE...BROWARD AND COLLIER COUNTIES.
  
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  74.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA OR 595
MILES...955 KM SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
..AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE HURRICANE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.  DO NOT FOCUS ON THE
PRECISE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANES
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE HIGH MOUNTAINS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N... 74.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/301500m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/301500.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise