[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 32

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 300900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

..HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA...THREATENS   
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...  
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THIS
INCLUDES MONROE...MIAMI DADE...BROWARD AND COLLIER COUNTIES.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO CAMAGUAY AND NOW INCLUDES
ALL OF CUBA FROM SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS AND
MATANZAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  73.3 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA AND ALSO ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR
..AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  THIS TRACK WILL
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.  DO NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE
LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS PARTICULARLY OVER HIGH ELEVATIONS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER
WATER.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
  
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. THIS
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 73.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
 
LAWRENCE
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
  
NNNN
NNNN

The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/300900m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/300900.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise