[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 300600
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  31A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED APR 30 2003

..WILFRED STILL BATTERING HISPANIOLA...THREATENS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI
..THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FOR CUBA
FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS
MORNING.
 
INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.
 
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.5 WEST.  THIS
POSITION IS OVER HAITI ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22
KM/HR.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE WATERS OF
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN A FEW HOURS.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.

IT IS ASSUMED THAT WILFRED CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS PARTICULARLY
OVER ELEVATED AREAS.  HOWEVER...WILFRED IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN
WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. THIS
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.
 
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...19.2 N... 72.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
 
LAWRENCE
 
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/300600m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/300600.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise