[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 31

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 300300
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2003

..WILFRED STILL BATTERING HISPANIOLA...THREATENS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
..HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FOR CUBA
FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
75 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI.
 
WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22
KM/HR...AND ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND EMERGE ALONG THE COAST OF
HAITI WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE
FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAINS
COVER A WIDE SWATH.

WILFRED HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS PARTICULARLY OVER
ELEVATED AREAS.  HOWEVER...WILFRED IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN AGAIN
WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. THIS
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...19.1 N... 71.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT...WEDNESDAY.
 
PASCH
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/300300m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/300300.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise