[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A

[kg5qd@wxsvr.net]

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 301800
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003

..WILFRED DRIFTING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA... 
..THIS IS A SIMULATED BULLETIN! THERE IS NO STORM THREATENING... 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI...FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD...FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THIS
INCLUDES MONROE...MIAMI DADE...BROWARD AND COLLIER COUNTIES.
  
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE BROAD AND ILL DEFINED CENTER OF HURRICANE
WILFRED WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  74.7
WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA.
 
WILFRED HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA WHILE THE CENTER IS REFORMING.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE HURRICANE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CUBA AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.  DO NOT FOCUS
ON THE PRECISE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANES
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY
FROM THE HIGH MOUNTAINS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.5 N... 74.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
 
AVILA
 
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.
 
 
NNNN
NNNN

The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/301800m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/301800.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise