[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 30

Tue, 29 Apr 2003 16:59:58 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 292100
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

..DRILL! WILFRED BATTERING HISPANIOLA...THREATENS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...  

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
..HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FOR CUBA
FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. 

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE WEAKENING EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...EAST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI.

WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK
SINCE THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.   WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER
THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED. THIS
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...18.8 N... 70.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

AVILA

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.

NNNN
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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/292100m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/292100.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise