[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A

Tue, 29 Apr 2003 14:00:00 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 291800
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE APR 29 2003

..DRILL! EYE OF WILFRED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
..HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FOR CUBA
FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY THROUGH SANCTI SPIRITUS.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. 

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  69.7 WEST JUST NORTH OF THE CITY OF 
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT
TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANES
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO NEAR 120 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...18.6 N... 69.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

AVILA

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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/291800m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/291800.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise