[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29B

Tue, 29 Apr 2003 08:59:02 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 291300
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  29B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
9 AM AST TUE APR 29 2003

..DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILFRED STILL POUNDING PUERTO RICO AND
HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PUERTO RICO ARE LIKELY TO BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

AT 9 AM AST...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  68.7 WEST.  THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.  A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.  THIS TRACK WILL BRING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY AND
OVER HAITI TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EVEN HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  WILFRED
MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM..MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  965 MB...28.49 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.

REPEATING THE 9 AM AST POSITION...18.3 N... 68.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

AVILA

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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/291300m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/291300.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise