[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A

Tue, 29 Apr 2003 01:00:01 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 290500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM AST TUE APR 29 2003

..DRILL! DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILFRED STILL POUNDING PUERTO RICO...
..EYE MOVES OFFSHORE OVER MONA PASSAGE...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN
PRECAUTIONS UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

AT 1 AM AST...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  67.5 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS
JUST OFFSHORE ABOUT 25 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WILFRED HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD.  A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH IS EXPECTED TO TODAY. 
REMEMBER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST
TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND
RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 150 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILFRED IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.

REPEATING THE 1 AM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 67.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 978 MB.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 AM AST.  THE NEXT COMPLETE WILL BE ISSUED AT 5
AM AST.

LAWRENCE

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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/290500m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/290500.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise