[FLARES] HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER 28

Tue, 29 Apr 2003 05:00:01 -0400 (EDT)

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 290900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILFRED ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE APR 29 2003

..DRILL! DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILFRED STILL POUNDING PUERTO RICO AS IT   
HEADS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECAUTIONS
UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILFRED WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  68.0 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS
ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND DIRECTLY OVER ISLA MONA IN THE MONA PASSAGE.

WILFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.  A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY.  THIS TRACK WILL BRING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY AND
OVER HAITI TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE HURRICANES DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS AND RAINS COVER A WIDE SWATH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EVEN HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  WILFRED
MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM..MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY 20 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF WILFRED...
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COASTS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WILFRED.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...18.1 N... 68.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM AST AND 9 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

LAWRENCE

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.

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The Forecast/Advisory for this Time is available at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/290900m.txt
Also a graphical aprs plot of the Forecast is at:
http://wxsvr.net/tmp/290900.png

This is an Exercise Message - Repeating this is only an Exercise